"Official" Ice Out Thread

[Pricestavern]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

[MAXUM]

See there you go, proof that ice sinks faster today than it did in the late 1800's.

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

Good work!

That graph is very telling. It especially shows the change in the last 40 years. My anecdotal perceptions were wrong.

Looks to me like an indication of Climate Change.

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Good work!

Looks to me like an indication of Climate Change.

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by DEJ

You post a quote of my post but you edit my quote to change my meaning! Totally unfair.

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

You post a quote of my post but you edit my quote to change my meaning! Totally unfair.

Cry me a river. Please read post #186.

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by DEJ

Cry me a river. Please read post #186.

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Good one,

[MAXUM]

Couldn't resist!

[bilproject]

Still Ice around the mount in Center Harbor. Looks like tomorrow morning for Ice out. Had the 24th in the ice out contest some year. Does that count?

[luckypete]

Missed it by 37 hours and 9 minutes! HA

[Garcia]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

Thanks! The graph supports my less than scientific memory of the ice going out in late April when I was a child. Now I plan to have the dock in and camp open in mid April (certainly by the third week or so). A year like this year seems late - then again, maybe I’m just less patient as I get older!

[rsmlp]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting. Thank you

[Pricestavern]

Originally Posted by rsmlp

I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting. Thank you

Well, if you take April 26 as = 125 (number of days since Jan 1) and April 13 as 102, the difference is 13 days. That amounts to an 11.3% shortening in 131 years. I'm not a statistician either and I don't know how you'd determine statistical significance based on a single set of 131 years of data. But it feels like an 11 percent change is pretty significant. The cause? I'll let others debate that.

It would be interesting to try and superimpose 10 year avg low and high April temperatures (if you can find reliable temperature data back that far) to see if there is correlation, though maybe a combined March-April average would be a better view of temperature effect on melting. One could definitely get lost down this rabbit hole if they had the time.

[C-Bass]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

Well, if you take April 26 as = 125 (number of days since Jan 1) and April 13 as 102, the difference is 13 days. That amounts to an 11.3% shortening in 131 years. I'm not a statistician either and I don't know how you'd determine statistical significance based on a single set of 131 years of data. But it feels like an 11 percent change is pretty significant. The cause? I'll let others debate that.

It would be interesting to try and superimpose 10 year avg low and high April temperatures (if you can find reliable temperature data back that far) to see if there is correlation, though maybe a combined March-April average would be a better view of temperature effect on melting. One could definitely get lost down this rabbit hole if they had the time.

The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by C-Bass

The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.

I haven't heard of anyone putting "heaters" in the lake to keep ice away? Circulators/bubblers of course, but don't think anyone is trying to heat the lake water to keep ice away.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by C-Bass

The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.

The amount of bubblers on the lake is extremely insignificant to the surface area of the lake as a whole and would have absolutely no effect on ice out. Remember ice out is determined by the Mounts ability to travel to its ports safely and completely reliable of the broads have no ice. Last I checked there are no bubblers in the broads and many other large open areas of water. lol

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by joey2665

The amount of bubblers on the lake is extremely insignificant to the surface area of the lake as a whole and would have absolutely no effect on ice out. Remember ice out is determined by the Mounts ability to travel to its ports safely and completely reliable of the broads have no ice. Last I checked there are no bubblers in the broads and many other large open areas of water. lol

Often times circulators are tied to thermostats and timers as well. Ours don't run unless the air temp is under 32 degrees, and only run for a set time per day if consistently under that. Ours have not run for quite a while because of temps, so it is doubtful that they would have an effect on the overall lake melt.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by codeman671

Often times circulators are tied to thermostats and timers as well. Ours don't run unless the air temp is under 32 degrees, and only run for a set time per day if consistently under that. Ours have not run for quite a while because of temps, so it is doubtful that they would have an effect on the overall lake melt.

I absolutely agree. I hope the OP was joking.

[webmaster]

Originally Posted by rsmlp

I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting.

Also, different methods of determining Ice-Out have been used over the years since 1887.

[tis]

Originally Posted by webmaster

Also, different methods of determining Ice-Out have been used over the years since 1887.

That is SO true. Therefore the dates could vary easily!