Curious About Reported COVID-18 Numbers

[Major]

Originally Posted by Not to Worry

As the body count grows you are still holding your uninformed position? Your post makes we wonder if you are serious of just trolling...I think that later is more likely.

From Barrons "“We’re getting closer,” President Donald Trump said on Wednesday. “We’re getting much closer to getting our country back to the way it was.”

White House officials are reportedly pushing to begin reopening the country on May 1, though top officials, including Surgeon General
Jerome Adams, have said that the target remains unlikely for most of the U.S.

Opening the gates and telling the nation to go about its business as if Covid-19 were a mild flu is one option. A paper from academics at Harvard and Columbia universities, published by Harvard’s Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics, suggests that such an approach would kill two million people in the U.S. by the fall.

I'm not trolling at all. The models that caused us to shutter in place have been wrong. The Chinese coronavirus is nothing more than a bad flu year. In 2017-18, the U.S. suffered between 46,000 and 85,000 deaths from the flu with 500,000 hospitalized. The combined deaths from Chinese coronavirus and normal flu will fall within this range. What did we do in 2017-18? Nothing! This is a media- and social media-driven event. Yes, it is to be taken seriously, especially for people who have compromised immune systems, but we cannot shutter our economy and effect everyone.

We need to follow Sweden's model, and get all Americans back working. If you or someone you love is compromised, then be careful, while the rest of us get back to work.

[WinnisquamZ]

Originally Posted by Major

I'm not trolling at all. The models that caused us to shutter in place have been wrong. The Chinese coronavirus is nothing more than a bad flu year. In 2017-18, the U.S. suffered between 46,000 and 85,000 deaths from the flu with 500,000 hospitalized. The combined deaths from Chinese coronavirus and normal flu will fall within this range. What did we do in 2017-18? Nothing! This is a media- and social media-driven event. Yes, it is to be taken seriously, especially for people who have compromised immune systems, but we cannot shutter our economy and effect everyone.



We need to follow Sweden's model, and get all Americans back working. If you or someone you love is compromised, then be careful, while the rest of us get back to work.

Major, many of us here agree with your take on this event. For me, patience is running thin. No time in history have we quarantined the healthy. Those at high risk should be the ones we protect under quarantine. I believe, this week plans will start to be identified that will allow us all to get back to living our life’s



Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[ApS]

Originally Posted by WinnisquamZ

Major, many of us here agree with your take on this event. For me, patience is running thin. No time in history have we quarantined the healthy. Those at high risk should be the ones we protect under quarantine. I believe, this week plans will start to be identified that will allow us all to get back to living our lives.

Professor Knut Wittowski, epidemiologist, says "Get the kids in school now".

https://www.nujournal.com/opinion/le...and-shepherds/

[JEEPONLY]

Originally Posted by Major

I'm not trolling at all. The models that caused us to shutter in place have been wrong. The Chinese coronavirus is nothing more than a bad flu year. In 2017-18, the U.S. suffered between 46,000 and 85,000 deaths from the flu with 500,000 hospitalized. The combined deaths from Chinese coronavirus and normal flu will fall within this range. What did we do in 2017-18? Nothing! This is a media- and social media-driven event. Yes, it is to be taken seriously, especially for people who have compromised immune systems, but we cannot shutter our economy and effect everyone.

We need to follow Sweden's model, and get all Americans back working. If you or someone you love is compromised, then be careful, while the rest of us get back to work.

If I'm hearing you correctly, many more people have died during "bad flu years" than will die during this pandemic.
So... maybe logic would dictate that every year we should practice social distancing, unless, of course, you want to accept a menial 46k-85k U.S. deaths per year!

My point?- No, don't just accept a death count- If you aren't part of the solution, you are part of the problem!

[chachee52]

So, here's another way of looking at the "numbers". I will be the first to tell everyone that I do NOT get the flu shot. The numbers for the flu are also skewed (not trying to start another debate on that). But the numbers for the flu are for an entire year, not 2-3 months. So to compare the numbers of the flu and Covid right now just can't be done . As others have said, opinions are opinions. As I am telling everyone the best strategy is to take the info that is given to us and come up with your own gut instinct that works best for you. But in doing so you have to respect someone else's gut instinct be cause right now, there is NOright answer!!

[Flylady]

The modeling first presented show worse case scenario, no social distancing, then with social distancing at 50% compliance and this greater levels of compliance. The number of infected and deaths dropped substantially by the level of increased compliance.

The flue data is an annual number. If the worse case scenario (no nothing) projected 3000 deaths per day, that would be 180,000 in 2 months and would increase incrementality each month.

So the good news is with social distancing the numbers are averaging 1000 deaths per day. That is 60,000 in two months or 180,000 in 6 months.

I think it is much to early to state the models got it wrong. Also, as previously stated, China's numbers can not be trusted. In the U.S. people that have died in nursing homes or at home from Covid 19 or related causes are NOT being included in the numbers as of yet, although CDC has issued updated guidelines about death certificate completions.

[TheProfessor]

Some folks get the complexity and enormity of this disease whilst others do not.

One analogy is the Black Death Plague of the Middle Ages. Scientifically, not the same. To some the consequences potentially could be similar.

This disease began in November 2019 in China. Identifying it and naming it came later.

Governor Sununu now has 30 Emergency Orders.
He has access to information from his own staff. The scientific community. Other governors. And the federal government.

[VitaBene]

Originally Posted by JEEPONLY

So... maybe logic would dictate that every year we should practice social distancing, unless, of course, you want to accept a menial 46k-85k U.S. deaths per year!

Yes, as long as you are OK with decimating the world economy. But the US will not have the money to spread around the globe doing good during a depression. Call me naive but I do believe we do more good than bad.

This is classic risk versus reward. We do it everyday. I know that it is way safer to sit in my garage typing this than it is to take an old motorcycle for a ride (which I will do when I hit send) or jump on a boat and head out on the lake to fish or go to an island home.

I'm not saying I disagree with what we did, I agree. I am also fortunate to be able to work from home, but usually would be in the field 40%. We need to restart our economy in a measured fashion.