Curious About Reported COVID-18 Numbers

[Not to Worry]

Originally Posted by Major

We need to resume to normalcy ASAP. This is no worse than a bad flu season. A complete overreaction!


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As the body count grows you are still holding your uninformed position? Your post makes we wonder if you are serious of just trolling...I think that later is more likely.

From Barrons "“We’re getting closer,” President Donald Trump said on Wednesday. “We’re getting much closer to getting our country back to the way it was.”

White House officials are reportedly pushing to begin reopening the country on May 1, though top officials, including Surgeon General
Jerome Adams, have said that the target remains unlikely for most of the U.S.

Opening the gates and telling the nation to go about its business as if Covid-19 were a mild flu is one option. A paper from academics at Harvard and Columbia universities, published by Harvard’s Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics, suggests that such an approach would kill two million people in the U.S. by the fall.

[Major]

Originally Posted by Not to Worry

As the body count grows you are still holding your uninformed position? Your post makes we wonder if you are serious of just trolling...I think that later is more likely.

From Barrons "“We’re getting closer,” President Donald Trump said on Wednesday. “We’re getting much closer to getting our country back to the way it was.”

White House officials are reportedly pushing to begin reopening the country on May 1, though top officials, including Surgeon General
Jerome Adams, have said that the target remains unlikely for most of the U.S.

Opening the gates and telling the nation to go about its business as if Covid-19 were a mild flu is one option. A paper from academics at Harvard and Columbia universities, published by Harvard’s Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics, suggests that such an approach would kill two million people in the U.S. by the fall.

I'm not trolling at all. The models that caused us to shutter in place have been wrong. The Chinese coronavirus is nothing more than a bad flu year. In 2017-18, the U.S. suffered between 46,000 and 85,000 deaths from the flu with 500,000 hospitalized. The combined deaths from Chinese coronavirus and normal flu will fall within this range. What did we do in 2017-18? Nothing! This is a media- and social media-driven event. Yes, it is to be taken seriously, especially for people who have compromised immune systems, but we cannot shutter our economy and effect everyone.

We need to follow Sweden's model, and get all Americans back working. If you or someone you love is compromised, then be careful, while the rest of us get back to work.

[WinnisquamZ]

Originally Posted by Major

I'm not trolling at all. The models that caused us to shutter in place have been wrong. The Chinese coronavirus is nothing more than a bad flu year. In 2017-18, the U.S. suffered between 46,000 and 85,000 deaths from the flu with 500,000 hospitalized. The combined deaths from Chinese coronavirus and normal flu will fall within this range. What did we do in 2017-18? Nothing! This is a media- and social media-driven event. Yes, it is to be taken seriously, especially for people who have compromised immune systems, but we cannot shutter our economy and effect everyone.



We need to follow Sweden's model, and get all Americans back working. If you or someone you love is compromised, then be careful, while the rest of us get back to work.

Major, many of us here agree with your take on this event. For me, patience is running thin. No time in history have we quarantined the healthy. Those at high risk should be the ones we protect under quarantine. I believe, this week plans will start to be identified that will allow us all to get back to living our life’s



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[ApS]

Originally Posted by WinnisquamZ

Major, many of us here agree with your take on this event. For me, patience is running thin. No time in history have we quarantined the healthy. Those at high risk should be the ones we protect under quarantine. I believe, this week plans will start to be identified that will allow us all to get back to living our lives.

Professor Knut Wittowski, epidemiologist, says "Get the kids in school now".

https://www.nujournal.com/opinion/le...and-shepherds/

[JEEPONLY]

Originally Posted by Major

I'm not trolling at all. The models that caused us to shutter in place have been wrong. The Chinese coronavirus is nothing more than a bad flu year. In 2017-18, the U.S. suffered between 46,000 and 85,000 deaths from the flu with 500,000 hospitalized. The combined deaths from Chinese coronavirus and normal flu will fall within this range. What did we do in 2017-18? Nothing! This is a media- and social media-driven event. Yes, it is to be taken seriously, especially for people who have compromised immune systems, but we cannot shutter our economy and effect everyone.

We need to follow Sweden's model, and get all Americans back working. If you or someone you love is compromised, then be careful, while the rest of us get back to work.

If I'm hearing you correctly, many more people have died during "bad flu years" than will die during this pandemic.
So... maybe logic would dictate that every year we should practice social distancing, unless, of course, you want to accept a menial 46k-85k U.S. deaths per year!

My point?- No, don't just accept a death count- If you aren't part of the solution, you are part of the problem!

[chachee52]

So, here's another way of looking at the "numbers". I will be the first to tell everyone that I do NOT get the flu shot. The numbers for the flu are also skewed (not trying to start another debate on that). But the numbers for the flu are for an entire year, not 2-3 months. So to compare the numbers of the flu and Covid right now just can't be done . As others have said, opinions are opinions. As I am telling everyone the best strategy is to take the info that is given to us and come up with your own gut instinct that works best for you. But in doing so you have to respect someone else's gut instinct be cause right now, there is NOright answer!!

[Flylady]

The modeling first presented show worse case scenario, no social distancing, then with social distancing at 50% compliance and this greater levels of compliance. The number of infected and deaths dropped substantially by the level of increased compliance.

The flue data is an annual number. If the worse case scenario (no nothing) projected 3000 deaths per day, that would be 180,000 in 2 months and would increase incrementality each month.

So the good news is with social distancing the numbers are averaging 1000 deaths per day. That is 60,000 in two months or 180,000 in 6 months.

I think it is much to early to state the models got it wrong. Also, as previously stated, China's numbers can not be trusted. In the U.S. people that have died in nursing homes or at home from Covid 19 or related causes are NOT being included in the numbers as of yet, although CDC has issued updated guidelines about death certificate completions.

[TheProfessor]

Some folks get the complexity and enormity of this disease whilst others do not.

One analogy is the Black Death Plague of the Middle Ages. Scientifically, not the same. To some the consequences potentially could be similar.

This disease began in November 2019 in China. Identifying it and naming it came later.

Governor Sununu now has 30 Emergency Orders.
He has access to information from his own staff. The scientific community. Other governors. And the federal government.

[VitaBene]

Originally Posted by JEEPONLY

So... maybe logic would dictate that every year we should practice social distancing, unless, of course, you want to accept a menial 46k-85k U.S. deaths per year!

Yes, as long as you are OK with decimating the world economy. But the US will not have the money to spread around the globe doing good during a depression. Call me naive but I do believe we do more good than bad.

This is classic risk versus reward. We do it everyday. I know that it is way safer to sit in my garage typing this than it is to take an old motorcycle for a ride (which I will do when I hit send) or jump on a boat and head out on the lake to fish or go to an island home.

I'm not saying I disagree with what we did, I agree. I am also fortunate to be able to work from home, but usually would be in the field 40%. We need to restart our economy in a measured fashion.

[Billy Bob]

Originally Posted by Not to Worry

As the body count grows you are still holding your uninformed position? Your post makes we wonder if you are serious of just trolling...I think that later is more likely.

From Barrons "“We’re getting closer,” President Donald Trump said on Wednesday. “We’re getting much closer to getting our country back to the way it was.”

White House officials are reportedly pushing to begin reopening the country on May 1, though top officials, including Surgeon General
Jerome Adams, have said that the target remains unlikely for most of the U.S.

Opening the gates and telling the nation to go about its business as if Covid-19 were a mild flu is one option. A paper from academics at Harvard and Columbia universities, published by Harvard’s Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics, suggests that such an approach would kill two million people in the U.S. by the fall.

Has to be a troll. You can’t be as uninformed and as rigid in your thinking as this guy pretends to be.

[Seaplane Pilot]

Originally Posted by Billy Bob

Has to be a troll. You can’t be as uninformed and as rigid in your thinking as this guy pretends to be.

So just because Major (and many others) disagree with your position, that makes him a troll? Typical lame argument from the left. “We’re right, everyone else is wrong”.

[Not to Worry]

Originally Posted by Seaplane Pilot

So just because Major (and many others) disagree with your position, that makes him a troll? Typical lame argument from the left. “We’re right, everyone else is wrong”.

I do not believe anyone has ever said I am from the left. I try to deal in facts versus fiction. I think that just makes me informed versus right or left. Today too many define news that they do not like or agree with as fake. Very few of those people check into the story to find the hard core facts to back up their believes. Not sure what you would call a person who does this but maybe just uninformed. The world is facing a pandemic and people are dying. How many? Who knows since China and Russia are not telling the truth and even in the US our numbers are not accurate, since all agree that those who are infected are a much higher number than is reported.

People are dying and the ENTIRE worlds governments are responding (albeit too slow in the US) The experts all agree that if we reopen too soon more will die that do not need to die. This is simply a fact. There is nothing to argue. What that does to the economy I doubt we can accurately predict. I fear just like anyone with a brain, that we
would could end up in a depression but that is the price we will pay for China's arrogance in not dealing the virus when maybe it could have been contained.

[Major]

Originally Posted by Not to Worry

I do not believe anyone has ever said I am from the left. I try to deal in facts versus fiction. I think that just makes me informed versus right or left. Today too many define news that they do not like or agree with as fake. Very few of those people check into the story to find the hard core facts to back up their believes. Not sure what you would call a person who does this but maybe just uninformed. The world is facing a pandemic and people are dying. How many? Who knows since China and Russia are not telling the truth and even in the US our numbers are not accurate, since all agree that those who are infected are a much higher number than is reported.

People are dying and the ENTIRE worlds governments are responding (albeit too slow in the US) The experts all agree that if we reopen too soon more will die that do not need to die. This is simply a fact. There is nothing to argue. What that does to the economy I doubt we can accurately predict. I fear just like anyone with a brain, that we
would could end up in a depression but that is the price we will pay for China's arrogance in not dealing the virus when maybe it could have been contained.

There’s a lot to argue. The numbers speak for themselves, and the earlier models on which we based our decisions were wrong.

There is a socio-economic impact to this. Like it or not, there is dignity in work. Most of our self esteem comes from doing well at our jobs. What we are experiencing now is the left’s dream - replacing the dignity of work with a government check.

I am disgusted by our response to this.


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[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by Major

There’s a lot to argue. The numbers speak for themselves, and the earlier models on which we based our decisions were wrong.

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Were the earlier models wrong, or are data used to initiate the models different now due to social distancing? How many runs do they perform, changing the initial conditions to determine what different inputs have on the outcome? Looks like I need to find those modeling websites.

I do agree that the economy needs to start running soon. Disagree that we should just turn the switch back on.



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[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by gillygirl

Were the earlier models wrong, or are data used to initiate the models different now due to social distancing? How many runs do they perform, changing the initial conditions to determine what different inputs have on the outcome? Looks like I need to find those modeling websites.

I do agree that the economy needs to start running soon. Disagree that we should just turn the switch back on.



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Agreed with the two above. I think there's a balance to be found between mitigating risk and shutting the country down.

I was at Home Depot yesterday, and they seemed to strike the perfect balance: it's open but minimizing the number of people in the store and making sure people keep distance (floor markings) and employees are safe (gloves/masks/barriers).

I'm wondering if that works for restaurants and other businesses as well: every other table, cleaning supplies available, shortened hours to thoroughly clean overnight...

I'd be interested to know what the business owners on here think—I don't know that I've seen their opinions on their opinions for their businesses.

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[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

I'm wondering if that works for restaurants and other businesses as well: every other table, cleaning supplies available, shortened hours to thoroughly clean overnight...


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That’s how Florida started out with restaurants. 50% capacity. It worked great, but of course it’s hard to drink or eat through a mask.


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[kawishiwi]

Originally Posted by Seaplane Pilot

So just because Major (and many others) disagree with your position, that makes him a troll? Typical lame argument from the left. “We’re right, everyone else is wrong”.

Actually, "We're right, everyone else is wrong" could be YOUR username.

[Seaplane Pilot]

Originally Posted by kawishiwi

Actually, "We're right, everyone else is wrong" could be YOUR username.

I didn’t see comedians on the Governor’s list of essential businesses. Please go back to “cowering in place”. CNN is calling.