Ice-Out 2008

CanisLupusArctos · 03-18-2008, 05:10 PM

This afternoon a 2-inch crack opened up between Black Cat Island and Black Cat Shoals (FL 83). The shoals themselves opened up yesterday, just a foot or two surrounding the rocks.

While the ice otherwise remains plenty strong enough to support snowmobiles (they keep going by) the opening between the island and the shoals is usually the first visible step in the iceout process for the NW end of the lake. Once fully open, it provides the wind an access point to start ripping.

Island Girl · 03-21-2008, 10:07 AM

As we watch the progression of ice-out over the next few weeks please take a second to thank all of the webcam operators who make this possible for you. If you look at the ice-out page, and the webcams page and click on each image you will find that someone out there has taken the time and effort to show a piece of our area.

Just a few years ago there was just the WeirsCam from our beloved webmaster.... and now most of the lake is represented (still waiting for someone to run with it from Moultonboro.) We can see the changing conditions frequently and assess the traveling possibilities.

I appreciate the willingness of all of the owners to allow their cams to be viewed from a webcams page and urge you to click on their ads once in a while to keep these cams free. If you visit a sponsor... mention that you saw their ad on that particular webcam...

Thanks everyone for your support and a special thank you to my fellow webcam operators.. and the Snake Eyes contributors....

Let's watch the ice melt!!

(my non-lake friends think that I should not say that outloud.. sounds wacky!!)

IG

ps...I hope to adjust the exposure on Snake Eyes on Saturday.. My great friends will provide transport.... weather and lake conditions permitting.. thank them too!!!)

www.weirscam.com
www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm
www.rattlesnakecam.com/lakecams.htm
www.rattlesnakecam.com

SIKSUKR · 03-21-2008, 10:44 AM

Certainly a big thanks to you IG for being the inspiration for many more lake cams.Great job!

CanisLupusArctos · 03-21-2008, 05:36 PM

IG, thanks so much for the reminder to folks on how to support the cam sites. Even on a site with graphics like mine, no one should assume "this site is obviously all set for support." Since some have asked (privately), My site's design reflects a little knowledge of Photoshop and web design that I gained in college when I should've been studying other subjects (D'oH!)

As far as Moultonborough view is concerned, my WeatherCam is Moultonborough for all intents and purposes. It's true that the southern half of Black Cat sticks into Meredith but this view doesn't represent Meredith much at all - the town is on the other side of the lake from here, and isn't even visible. Most of Black Cat Island is in Moultonborough.

In the cam view, the right side includes Meredith, Gilford, and Alton while the left side is mostly Moultonborough (except for 5-mile island.) For details (and a visibility chart) visit the information section of the weathercam site.

Now about iceout... significant things have happened today. The Black Cat Shoals became much more open thanks to wind gusts of 42 mph. The crack between there and the island also became more evident and will soon be an open lead. When it becomes a couple hundred feet wide, iceout is usually within a few days... depending on weather. Wind will speed the process but extremely low temperatures (like this morning's) results in some reformation of the ice and overnight thickening.

The crack and open shoals can be seen easily in this cam image from this morning.

Merrymeeting · 03-21-2008, 06:41 PM

But if the 10-day forecasts are reasonably accurate, we're in for at least another week of cold (40's), damp, dark weather, with temps below freezing at night. I doubt we're going to see much change in the ice over the next week.

CanisLupusArctos · 03-22-2008, 12:22 AM

Around 6 p.m. I had an eye-opening as I spied a compact car riding between Black Cat and Beaver Islands. The car made its way along the MOUNT route all the way down to near Steamboat Island before turning and coming back, then heading in the direction of Center Harbor.

While the car was hanging out down by Steamboat, a snowmobile came by, not incredibly fast, and made the circle around Black Cat.

It's apparently thicker than it looks out there...

Merrymeeting · 03-22-2008, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

apparently thicker than it looks ...

Apparently, so are the drivers!

dan · 03-22-2008, 04:09 PM

7 Cars and trucks in front of our house right now. Parked fairly close to one another. Must still have good ice in this part of Moultonboro.

Formula260SS · 03-22-2008, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dan

7 Cars and trucks in front of our house right now. Parked fairly close to one another. Must still have good ice in this part of Moultonboro.

My guess is they would be fishermen, my next guess is the know how thick the ice is

dan · 03-22-2008, 10:10 PM

Right on both accounts.

Weekend Pundit · 03-23-2008, 05:04 PM

I'm guessing it's going to be a 'normal' Ice Out, with it occurring sometime around Tax Day (April 15th). I'll even hazard a guess as to the time: 3:30PM.

Merrymeeting · 03-23-2008, 08:11 PM

The water temperature seems to determine ice-out more than most other indicators. If you look at the temperature history on this website you will see it is amazingly consistent in late March. We are on track and should see a degree increase sometime in the next 10 days!

nj2nh · 03-24-2008, 02:21 PM

In the "contest," I picked April 15th at about 2:30. I hope great minds think alike on this one.

Oh, and my guess was sent from Jersey. I actually won the ice out contest held by the "Main Street" newsletter in Alton a few years back. I randomly picked my son's birthday and that was the winner.

Didn't work after that, though.

nj2nh

spotsink · 03-24-2008, 03:58 PM

"Just a few years ago there was just the WeirsCam from our beloved webmaster.... and now most of the lake is represented (still waiting for someone to run with it from Moultonboro.)"

IG - I've long toyed with the idea of setting up a web cam at our place in Tuftonboro - looking northeast toward Mt. Shaw perhaps - but am too much a techno novice to know what to do or how to do it... electric power and a phone line are the basic requirements right? and then the camera with its own web server... dosen't the phone bill get rather large?

More on topic for this thread - ahve they started the annual "Ice Out" guessing contest? Historically April 20th is a good guess - a high percentage of ice outs around that day... time will tell.

Island Girl · 03-25-2008, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spotsink

IG - I've long toyed with the idea of setting up a web cam at our place in Tuftonboro - looking northeast toward Mt. Shaw perhaps - but am too much a techno novice to know what to do or how to do it... electric power and a phone line are the basic requirements right? and then the camera with its own web server... dosen't the phone bill get rather large?

I use copper.net for an isp and they have local phone numbers... most ips's do. The phone call is usually less than a minute, every ten minutes.

Bear Islander has a lot of information on setting up a webcam on his bearcam site. http://www.bearcam1.com/cam_info.htm

IG

Water Camper · 03-24-2008, 04:13 PM

IG and Blue Thunder,

I grew up in Auburn, Me and spent many weeks camping with family at the State Park. As an adult did Point Sebago numerous times as well as the State Park. Can't beat the water quality or the ability to cruise up the Songo to Brandy and Long Lake. Now living in NH Winni is the place, but if Sebago were closer would probably be going there instead.

Came back down the west side of the lake yesterday, the road is a mess.

A Maniac for Life,
Bill

Blue Thunder · 03-25-2008, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Water Camper

IG and Blue Thunder,

I grew up in Auburn, Me and spent many weeks camping with family at the State Park. As an adult did Point Sebago numerous times as well as the State Park. Can't beat the water quality or the ability to cruise up the Songo to Brandy and Long Lake. Now living in NH Winni is the place, but if Sebago were closer would probably be going there instead.

Came back down the west side of the lake yesterday, the road is a mess.

A Maniac for Life,
Bill

Hey Bill,
For clarification purposes, Island Girl's love for island living was forged by some stays on Sebago and Frye Island many years ago. She is and has been on Rattlesnake for some time now. I'm the outcast (some will say) over on Sebago, this being my 40th year of either vacationing or owning here. I do however, have a genuine interest in the NH Lakes region and try to participate in this wonderful forum for the greater good.

You're right, the water quality of Sebago Lake is unparalleled in New England and the boating here is a lot less hazardous than Winnipesaukee even though the lake is 45 square miles of water. I camped at the State Park as a kid and an adult and had a seasonal at Point Sebago for seven years.

Thanks for chiming in,

Blue Thunder

Pepper · 03-26-2008, 05:11 PM

My drive around Alton Bay this afternoon revealed a LOT of standing water on top of the ice. A quick check of all the cams on the Ice-Out page indicates the same condition all over the lake, so today's warm air and sunshine is doing it's part. The ice is dwindling, slowly, but it is going!

CanisLupusArctos · 03-27-2008, 04:11 PM

Today another lead became evident, opening between Black Cat Shoals and Three Mile Island. Once it opens, it will form a water channel between Black Cat and Three Mile, with the shoals as a midpoint.

This is important because the strongest and most frequent wind in this area (NW and SE) runs perpendicular to where the lead is setting up (SW to NE). The wind will be able to widen the crack on both sides and tear the ice right out if we get a windy storm.

Also today, the surface temp at Black Cat WeatherCam went to 35 for the first time since ice-in. This was in response to the depth temp (10 feet) rising to 35 in the last 24 hours after remaining at 33/34 all winter. Both temperatures are now equal at 35. The water is quickly working its way toward its non-winter pattern in which the surface is warmer than underneath.

Tomorrow may be a minor set-back as snow falls on the water surface... this usually has a cooling effect that may result in some weak re-freezing of open areas.

CanisLupusArctos · 03-24-2008, 04:33 PM

Looks can be deceieving because there has been car and sled traffic on this ice this past weekend, but the color scheme in this Black Cat WeatherCam image seems tropical. One thing to note is the presence of a lot of standing water on the ice adjacent to that crack between the island and the shoals. That's how it starts.

Pepper · 03-25-2008, 09:06 AM

I've been noticing that blue tone in the ice for about a week and a half, getting more blue each day. Driving around the bay in Alton, and all the way through Gilford it is really noticable. Not being knowledgable about the ice I've assumed that it means it's getting much thinner. Is this accurate?

I don't recall ever noticing the blue color like this before, and so I also wondered if perhaps it was the ice reflecting the color of the sky?

Either way, it is quite beautiful! It would be much more beautiful if it were melted, though!

Island Girl · 03-25-2008, 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pepper

I've been noticing that blue tone in the ice for about a week and a half, getting more blue each day. Driving around the bay in Alton, and all the way through Gilford it is really noticable. Not being knowledgable about the ice I've assumed that it means it's getting much thinner. Is this accurate?

I don't recall ever noticing the blue color like this before, and so I also wondered if perhaps it was the ice reflecting the color of the sky?

Either way, it is quite beautiful! It would be much more beautiful if it were melted, though!

Well, there you are, woman. You have come up for air???

When the ice gets a dull gray color it is getting punky.

IG

Pepper · 03-25-2008, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Well, there you are, woman. You have come up for air???

When the ice gets a dull gray color it is getting punky.

IG

I've apparently been trapped in blue ice and finally came up for air!

03-18-2008, 05:10 PM	#1
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	an open lead This afternoon a 2-inch crack opened up between Black Cat Island and Black Cat Shoals (FL 83). The shoals themselves opened up yesterday, just a foot or two surrounding the rocks. While the ice otherwise remains plenty strong enough to support snowmobiles (they keep going by) the opening between the island and the shoals is usually the first visible step in the iceout process for the NW end of the lake. Once fully open, it provides the wind an access point to start ripping.

03-21-2008, 10:07 AM	#2
Island Girl Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Central MA Posts: 2,352 Thanks: 18 Thanked 535 Times in 179 Posts	Thanks to the webcam operators As we watch the progression of ice-out over the next few weeks please take a second to thank all of the webcam operators who make this possible for you. If you look at the ice-out page, and the webcams page and click on each image you will find that someone out there has taken the time and effort to show a piece of our area. Just a few years ago there was just the WeirsCam from our beloved webmaster.... and now most of the lake is represented (still waiting for someone to run with it from Moultonboro.) We can see the changing conditions frequently and assess the traveling possibilities. I appreciate the willingness of all of the owners to allow their cams to be viewed from a webcams page and urge you to click on their ads once in a while to keep these cams free. If you visit a sponsor... mention that you saw their ad on that particular webcam... Thanks everyone for your support and a special thank you to my fellow webcam operators.. and the Snake Eyes contributors.... Let's watch the ice melt!! (my non-lake friends think that I should not say that outloud.. sounds wacky!!) IG ps...I hope to adjust the exposure on Snake Eyes on Saturday.. My great friends will provide transport.... weather and lake conditions permitting.. thank them too!!!) www.weirscam.com www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm www.rattlesnakecam.com/lakecams.htm www.rattlesnakecam.com __________________ Island Girl ....... Make Lemonade

03-21-2008, 10:44 AM	#3
SIKSUKR Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,075 Thanks: 215 Thanked 903 Times in 509 Posts	Certainly a big thanks to you IG for being the inspiration for many more lake cams.Great job! __________________ SIKSUKR

03-21-2008, 05:36 PM	#4
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	IG, thanks so much for the reminder to folks on how to support the cam sites. Even on a site with graphics like mine, no one should assume "this site is obviously all set for support." Since some have asked (privately), My site's design reflects a little knowledge of Photoshop and web design that I gained in college when I should've been studying other subjects (D'oH!) As far as Moultonborough view is concerned, my WeatherCam is Moultonborough for all intents and purposes. It's true that the southern half of Black Cat sticks into Meredith but this view doesn't represent Meredith much at all - the town is on the other side of the lake from here, and isn't even visible. Most of Black Cat Island is in Moultonborough. In the cam view, the right side includes Meredith, Gilford, and Alton while the left side is mostly Moultonborough (except for 5-mile island.) For details (and a visibility chart) visit the information section of the weathercam site. Now about iceout... significant things have happened today. The Black Cat Shoals became much more open thanks to wind gusts of 42 mph. The crack between there and the island also became more evident and will soon be an open lead. When it becomes a couple hundred feet wide, iceout is usually within a few days... depending on weather. Wind will speed the process but extremely low temperatures (like this morning's) results in some reformation of the ice and overnight thickening. The crack and open shoals can be seen easily in this cam image from this morning. Attached Images

03-22-2008, 12:22 AM	#6
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	I suddenly agree it's thicker than it looks... Around 6 p.m. I had an eye-opening as I spied a compact car riding between Black Cat and Beaver Islands. The car made its way along the MOUNT route all the way down to near Steamboat Island before turning and coming back, then heading in the direction of Center Harbor. While the car was hanging out down by Steamboat, a snowmobile came by, not incredibly fast, and made the circle around Black Cat. It's apparently thicker than it looks out there...

03-21-2008, 06:41 PM	#5
Merrymeeting Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Merrymeeting Lake, New Durham Posts: 2,226 Thanks: 302 Thanked 800 Times in 368 Posts	But if the 10-day forecasts are reasonably accurate, we're in for at least another week of cold (40's), damp, dark weather, with temps below freezing at night. I doubt we're going to see much change in the ice over the next week.

03-22-2008, 04:09 PM	#8
dan Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: moultonborough/billerica Posts: 42 Thanks: 21 Thanked 7 Times in 4 Posts	7 Cars and trucks in front of our house right now. Parked fairly close to one another. Must still have good ice in this part of Moultonboro.

03-22-2008, 10:10 PM	#10
dan Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: moultonborough/billerica Posts: 42 Thanks: 21 Thanked 7 Times in 4 Posts	Right on both accounts.

03-23-2008, 05:04 PM	#11
Weekend Pundit Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Gilford Posts: 349 Thanks: 26 Thanked 69 Times in 42 Posts	Ice Out Prediction for 2008 I'm guessing it's going to be a 'normal' Ice Out, with it occurring sometime around Tax Day (April 15th). I'll even hazard a guess as to the time: 3:30PM.

03-23-2008, 08:11 PM	#12
Merrymeeting Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Merrymeeting Lake, New Durham Posts: 2,226 Thanks: 302 Thanked 800 Times in 368 Posts	The water temperature seems to determine ice-out more than most other indicators. If you look at the temperature history on this website you will see it is amazingly consistent in late March. We are on track and should see a degree increase sometime in the next 10 days! Last edited by Merrymeeting; 03-24-2008 at 04:03 PM.

03-24-2008, 02:21 PM	#13
nj2nh Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: NJ Posts: 529 Thanks: 80 Thanked 47 Times in 27 Posts	Hey, Weekend Pundit! In the "contest," I picked April 15th at about 2:30. I hope great minds think alike on this one. Oh, and my guess was sent from Jersey. I actually won the ice out contest held by the "Main Street" newsletter in Alton a few years back. I randomly picked my son's birthday and that was the winner. Didn't work after that, though. nj2nh __________________

03-24-2008, 03:58 PM	#14
spotsink Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 79 Thanks: 9 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	East side of the lake "Just a few years ago there was just the WeirsCam from our beloved webmaster.... and now most of the lake is represented (still waiting for someone to run with it from Moultonboro.)" IG - I've long toyed with the idea of setting up a web cam at our place in Tuftonboro - looking northeast toward Mt. Shaw perhaps - but am too much a techno novice to know what to do or how to do it... electric power and a phone line are the basic requirements right? and then the camera with its own web server... dosen't the phone bill get rather large? More on topic for this thread - ahve they started the annual "Ice Out" guessing contest? Historically April 20th is a good guess - a high percentage of ice outs around that day... time will tell.

03-24-2008, 04:13 PM	#16
Water Camper Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Pembroke, NH / Laconia, NH Posts: 451 Thanks: 10 Thanked 207 Times in 89 Posts	Sebago Lake IG and Blue Thunder, I grew up in Auburn, Me and spent many weeks camping with family at the State Park. As an adult did Point Sebago numerous times as well as the State Park. Can't beat the water quality or the ability to cruise up the Songo to Brandy and Long Lake. Now living in NH Winni is the place, but if Sebago were closer would probably be going there instead. Came back down the west side of the lake yesterday, the road is a mess. A Maniac for Life, Bill

03-26-2008, 05:11 PM	#18
Pepper Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Laconia, NH Posts: 1,284 Thanks: 409 Thanked 155 Times in 40 Posts	It's melting!!!!!!!!!!! My drive around Alton Bay this afternoon revealed a LOT of standing water on top of the ice. A quick check of all the cams on the Ice-Out page indicates the same condition all over the lake, so today's warm air and sunshine is doing it's part. The ice is dwindling, slowly, but it is going! __________________ Never waste time lamenting what was. Simply celebrate what is!

03-27-2008, 04:11 PM	#19
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	another lead Today another lead became evident, opening between Black Cat Shoals and Three Mile Island. Once it opens, it will form a water channel between Black Cat and Three Mile, with the shoals as a midpoint. This is important because the strongest and most frequent wind in this area (NW and SE) runs perpendicular to where the lead is setting up (SW to NE). The wind will be able to widen the crack on both sides and tear the ice right out if we get a windy storm. Also today, the surface temp at Black Cat WeatherCam went to 35 for the first time since ice-in. This was in response to the depth temp (10 feet) rising to 35 in the last 24 hours after remaining at 33/34 all winter. Both temperatures are now equal at 35. The water is quickly working its way toward its non-winter pattern in which the surface is warmer than underneath. Tomorrow may be a minor set-back as snow falls on the water surface... this usually has a cooling effect that may result in some weak re-freezing of open areas.

03-24-2008, 04:33 PM	#20
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Looks like tropical blue... Looks can be deceieving because there has been car and sled traffic on this ice this past weekend, but the color scheme in this Black Cat WeatherCam image seems tropical. One thing to note is the presence of a lot of standing water on the ice adjacent to that crack between the island and the shoals. That's how it starts. Attached Images

03-25-2008, 09:06 AM	#21
Pepper Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Laconia, NH Posts: 1,284 Thanks: 409 Thanked 155 Times in 40 Posts	I've been noticing that blue tone in the ice for about a week and a half, getting more blue each day. Driving around the bay in Alton, and all the way through Gilford it is really noticable. Not being knowledgable about the ice I've assumed that it means it's getting much thinner. Is this accurate? I don't recall ever noticing the blue color like this before, and so I also wondered if perhaps it was the ice reflecting the color of the sky? Either way, it is quite beautiful! It would be much more beautiful if it were melted, though! __________________ Never waste time lamenting what was. Simply celebrate what is!