Snowstorm Wednesday 1/28

[Rose]

CLA, R2B and all weather weenies out there,

Do any of you have a link to maps of the ECMWF model? The ones I always find don't show the short range forecasts (the first 60 hours) and only show two variables...the mean sea level pressure and the 500 mb chart. I'm greedy...I want more. Particularly since the NWS in Taunton is keeping a watchful eye on this model's guidance, which is placing the path of the storm further to the north and west and allowing a changeover everywhere in southern New England. I'd really like to see the first 60 hours of the forecast, at least.

Thanks,
Rose

[BoulderBronco]

Seems this is a great thing for snowmobiling but could be a bad thing for fishing conditions. From what I have heard it's already a bit slushy in areas. Another foot+ on top of that and it will be a mess. We don't want a repeat of last year. Any chance all this slush/snow will just freeze and the conditions become perfect?

[Lakegeezer]

Bring it on! I can't wait to do some snowmobiling in the storm tomorrow afternoon, with my GPS to keep from getting lost. BoulderBronco has a good point. There is already some serious slush spots on the lake. With another foot on top, things are going to get sloppy, but new snow is needed. The main part of the lake has frozen white-caps - very bumpy. In spots, there are ice-shards sicking up out of the snow, which make for an interesting ride.

With any luck, the snowmobilers will pack down plenty of space, which will make a good platform for the fishing derby.

[hilltopper]

Originally Posted by BoulderBronco

Seems this is a great thing for snowmobiling but could be a bad thing for fishing conditions. From what I have heard it's already a bit slushy in areas. Another foot+ on top of that and it will be a mess. We don't want a repeat of last year. Any chance all this slush/snow will just freeze and the conditions become perfect?

If I remember correctly last year, there were two events the week before the derby. One was heavy snow and the other was heavy snow with some mixing. I think total accumulation from the two was around 15". This will be a lighter snow event in regards to water content. I can't imagine it will be like last year. Last year it wasn't slush where I was...just plain stading water on top of the ice. It was a miserable mess!

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by BoulderBronco

Seems this is a great thing for snowmobiling but could be a bad thing for fishing conditions. From what I have heard it's already a bit slushy in areas. Another foot+ on top of that and it will be a mess. We don't want a repeat of last year. Any chance all this slush/snow will just freeze and the conditions become perfect?

If a bunch of people get out there with snow machines and pack it all down during the storm it should be fine! What's out there right now in front of Black Cat is very hard wind-pack like you find on the mountain summits. It is not like last year at all. It looks fluffy in the WeatherCam but it has in the high winds and extreme cold it has formed very solid drifts that you can walk on top of, without snowshoes.

Rose, I'm with you... I'd like to see the same ECMWF as you are looking for. I did read in Taunton's discussion (and agree) that the dense cold air mass plus the healthy snowcover all over New England will likely play a role in keeping the storm track south of the Mass Pike. I see a repeat or a near-repeat of what happened on Sunday the 18th.

My forecast for the Lakes Region is based on a local phenomenon I have observed for 3 years now... the lake itself acts as a funnel for wind coming off the ocean. For example, during some past winter storms where snow has changed to sleet and freezing rain along the coast, on the island we've gotten the coastal changeover (with strong SE winds) even while Moultonborough and Laconia were both still snowing and wind from the NE...

My hypothesis is the tongue of ocean influence comes farther inland than it otherwise would, because of the lake acting as a resistance-free channel for it. I've based a few forecasts on it, with success.

On Sunday the 18th I noticed the snowfall amounts were greatest along the coast and also along a corridor from Rochester to Center Harbor. The wind had been bringing ocean moisture into the cold air mass, and it was reaching "only so far" inland except around this lake southeastward to the seacoast.

The SE end of the lake is relatively open to the seacoast, so all an easterly air current has to do is catch the hills & mountains to the west of Rochester and Alton which steer it into the tip of Alton Bay, and then it gets a free ride between the Belknaps on the southern shore and the Ossipees on the northern shore, until it hits the Squam Mountains at the Center Harbor end and stops.

[BoulderBronco]

Well thats good. But it sounds like the lake is not generating any more ice. My brother had 10" halfway down Meredith bay two weeks ago. He went out again this past weekend and had about the same, maybe 11" in some spots. What gives? Is the lake maxed already? Is the snow pack insulating the lake to the point it will not freeze any more? I was hoping for 20" of ice this year. Either way I can't wait. I just moved my flight up a week so I am heading out there Thursday and will be there for 10 days. Here fishy fishy.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by Rose

CLA, R2B and all weather weenies out there,

Do any of you have a link to maps of the ECMWF model? The ones I always find don't show the short range forecasts (the first 60 hours) and only show two variables...the mean sea level pressure and the 500 mb chart. I'm greedy...I want more. Particularly since the NWS in Taunton is keeping a watchful eye on this model's guidance, which is placing the path of the storm further to the north and west and allowing a changeover everywhere in southern New England. I'd really like to see the first 60 hours of the forecast, at least.

Thanks,
Rose

I am also confused by the reference to the ECMWF model for the short term. I am only aware of model output from the ECMWF for 72 to 240 hours, 3 to 10 days. Yet Taunton often references ECMWF output for 24 hours out, as they have done today.

Being that ECMWF stands for The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, I must say I do not get it.

It is very likely that if you are a subscriber to their organization, you get a lot more than is available to the "free" user, but I understand the cost is very high.

R2B

[HomeWood]

I hope there's not too much snow on the lake. My 4 wheelers could barely move last year and my sled didn't even like it. I'll be up Friday morning. Can't wait!

[Resident 2B]

It is looking more like we will see a switch to freezing rain in the middle of the storm at least in the southern parts of the lake. I do not think it will be anything like we had in December, but I am seeing warm air at the mid levels due to the strength and path of the primary storm. I also think the coastal secondary may be north of Long Island, NY and not off the coast until it crosses the coast near Plymouth, Ma.

So, it will snow very hard for the first half of the storm, due to the high vertical lift or omega, perhaps around 8 to 10 inches around Alton and around 12 inches or a bit more near Black Cat Island. But, the warm layer will cause mixing and that will pack the snow down some or at least make it wetter.

Time will tell, but I think the NWS will be making mentin of this soon.

R2B

[AC2717]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

It is looking more like we will see a switch to freezing rain in the middle of the storm at least in the southern parts of the lake. I do not think it will be anything like we had in December, but I am seeing warm air at the mid levels due to the strength and path of the primary storm. I also think the coastal secondary may be north of Long Island, NY and not off the coast until it crosses the coast near Plymouth, Ma.

So, it will snow very hard for the first half of the storm, due to the high vertical lift or omega, perhaps around 8 to 10 inches around Alton and around 12 inches or a bit more near Black Cat Island. But, the warm layer will cause mixing and that will pack the snow down some or at least make it wetter.

Time will tell, but I think the NWS will be making mentin of this soon.

R2B

Hi R2B and CLA.
I am getting conflicting information for NOAA and from all the stations down here in Boston, can you tell me the honest forecast for the boston area within 128 belt below the MA Pike? You guys have been right more than then and I trust your outlooks. I do not think this storm has a chance to move up given the cold air pushing back down and if it hits the ocean much like the one in December the weekend of the 19th, that never really stopped until the end of the Sunday

[Resident 2B]

Just checking soundings and looking down stream a bit and the warm air at mid-levels will not reach the lake. The changeover to sleet and freezing rain will be well south of us.

Because the storm will be colder, the ratio will be 10:1 to 15:1 on average and with all the moisture, this wil be a significant event. It is looking like 1.5 to 2.5 feet at this time with some drifting at the end.

R2B

[CentreHarborEric]

Can't wait.
Can anyone comment on the conditions before this storm? I can imagine they were pretty firm.
Hopefully there will be so much new snow we won't even be able to get down to the old stuff!!
Thanks, I love the weather chatter. I have no idea what an Omega is, but it sounds pretty convincing and when I see comments like 1.5 to 2.5 feet of snow, I get excited!

[hilltopper]

Not even 2" in Meredith yet but it looks like the heavy stuff is moving in. At this rate we'll be snowblowing at midnight . The heavy stuff, assuming the forecast is still holding up, is definitley at least a handful of hours behind schedule. Mother Nature is going to make getting out of the driveway at 6 AM tomorrow difficult!

[hazelnut]

We're getting down here in MA. So far 4+ inches I'd say where I am just north of the MA Pike and a hair west of 128. I'm awaiting the changeover to rain before I warm up the Snowblower.

[AC2717]

Originally Posted by hazelnut

We're getting down here in MA. So far 4+ inches I'd say where I am just north of the MA Pike and a hair west of 128. I'm awaiting the changeover to rain before I warm up the Snowblower.

I do not think it will change over as quickly here in MA, I am in Quincy MA at work right now and we are still getting a good clip of snow and it was forecasted that it would change by about 11:30 or so here. I really hope they are wrong with the change to rain anyways, got a Big Sledding get together on Saturday! BRING ON THE SNOW!

Anyone care to enlighten us on new forecasts given the storm is a little slow today? I am hoping I am right, but I would guess that the snow/rain line is having trouble shifting North due to the cold air pushing down and the wind off the ocean has not been able to recirculate

[Rose]

Originally Posted by CentreHarborEric

I have no idea what an Omega is, but it sounds pretty convincing and when I see comments like 1.5 to 2.5 feet of snow, I get excited!

Omega is the change in pressure over time in the vertical dimension, so you can think of it as vertical velocity. For anyone feeling a little mathletic, here's a link to equations representing omega.

http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/omega.htm

[trfour]

A huge thank you to Rose, CLA, R2B and just plain Weathernuts Everywhere!!

All of these weather threads are " Awesome!! "

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by AC2717

Hi R2B and CLA.
I am getting conflicting information for NOAA and from all the stations down here in Boston, can you tell me the honest forecast for the boston area within 128 belt below the MA Pike? You guys have been right more than then and I trust your outlooks. I do not think this storm has a chance to move up given the cold air pushing back down and if it hits the ocean much like the one in December the weekend of the 19th, that never really stopped until the end of the Sunday

I see the radar showing ocean-influence moving westward but having some trouble getting inland from the immediate shore. It's all mix and rain off the MA coast now, with rain on Cape Cod and sleet in RI. Given this scenario I don't think it will be long before Boston changes over to sleet. However, there is a very sharp cutoff between the ocean influence and the cold air inland. For example Portsmouth is 29 right now and Manchester is 19, as is Rochester.

I think Boston area inside of Rt 128 from the MA pike southward will probably get more of a messy 6 inches out of this today, and then a change back to snow tonight with another inch or two. That will happen very quickly as the storm passes and winds shift from east into the NW.

For the Lakes Region I'll go for an average of 18 inches with the most snow falling on the east-facing slopes of hills as well as near them... but the lake's effect of "runway from the ocean" as I mentioned in last post concerns me with this one. There is a chance the sleet could make it farther inland along the Rt 11 corridor where landforms help channel the inland-bound air.

Keep up with the latest snowfall reports by visiting www.blackcatnh.com/weather and choose "rain and snow amounts" from the menu at left.

[Merrymeeting]

About 4-6" here in N Central MA, along Rt 495 near Rt. 2. It changed to rain/sleet about 90 minutes ago and is raining hard now. Seems to be melting/condensing much of what has fallen.

Now I just hope I can get it cleared before it hardens again.