When will this weather pattern change?

[Rose]

I haven't had time to really look at anything, but my weather weenie husband doesn't see a break in the pattern until July. In these spring patterns, I always say take the forecast with a grain of salt...the north/south oscillations of those "stationary" fronts that set up in these patterns is very difficult to predict.

[Nagigator]

Coming up for the week tomorrow, do any of the weather wonks care to give a forecast? No matter, a week at the lake is good anyway it goes. Just wondering if the long range forecast shows a break in this dismal period. Thanks! L...

[Merrymeeting]

Well, looking at the proverbial silver lining, at least the pine pollen isn't going to be bad this year. Most of it has been washed away!

[Blue Thunder]

If the forecast for Thursday through the weekend holds, we'll have a lot of happy folks out and about soaking up some warmth.

What say you prognosticators (R2B, Rose, Chipj, CLA) ??

BT

CLA, are you still working on that "denning" project?

[tis]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

Well, looking at the proverbial silver lining, at least the pine pollen isn't going to be bad this year. Most of it has been washed away!

And those damnable seeds from the maple trees that are everywhere, seemed to have been knocked off the trees by that strong wind a couple of weeks ago. THat makes me very happy!

[chipj29]

Keeping my fingers crossed for some improvement by the end of the week into the weekend. If we can get there, I think we will see more summer-like weather into the beginning of July.

[SIKSUKR]

I believe I'm the cause of this weather.Since I'm in the midst of a month long work schedule without a day off,I can not get to the lake.The weather gods are waiting for me to finish this awfull stretch and will reward me when I'm done.Sooo,right after the 4th of July will will finally get into our normal pattern!Be patient,I have to be.

[Resident 2B]

This big gale center off Cape Cod is sitting, spinning and deepening. It looks to stay roughly in place until sometime on Wednesday. So, that means what we have now is what we will be getting for another 48 hours or so.

Once this thing moves away, there is GREAT weather ready to move in starting Thursday. This is perfect for the NASCAR weekend!

The only wrinkle I see is the chance for thundershowers on Sunday, in the afternoon. The atmosphere looks to get unstable late in the weekend, and that usually means thundershowers or thunderstorms this time of the year. This could have some impact on the race, but this is six days out.

Bottom line is things will get better soon!

R2B

[chipj29]

If you are a surfer, or otherwise enjoy big waves and don't mind cold water, head over to Hampton Beach. Last night they were predicting 10-15 footers. Just be very careful, likely a very strong rip current.

[meteotrade]

Not to be a pessimist here, but I gotta disagree w/ some of these "chamber of commerce" approved forecasts . I really don't see much evidence to support a pattern change anytime soon, at least not in the next couple weeks. My forecast through early July is for a continuation of below normal temps and above normal rainfall. No, it won't ever be as bad as what we have now (please no more nor'easters til the fall!) but I don't see any sustained heat. Good news for those of us that hate the triple-H weather, not so good if you're hoping for a 90+ stretch anytime soon.

Pick of the week is Thursday- some sun and 80s. The weekend's looking iffy w/ more clouds, few showers/t-storms and temps probably in the 70s.

[tpabrad]

You can send some of that cooler weather down here to Florida, were roasting down here! High 90's last couple days with way too much humidity makes a pretty hot miserable day.

[Resident 2B]

My opinion of GREAT weather is low 80's with dew points in the low 60's. I see that coming Thursday through Monday, as long as the gale center does not back in from where I see it going into the Canadian maritimes. I do not consider 90+ as great weather nor am I suggesting it will be 90+ soon.

I also no connection to any Chamber of Commerce.

R2B

[meteotrade]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

My opinion of GREAT weather is low 80's with dew points in the low 60's. I see that coming Thursday through Monday, as long as the gale center does not back in from where I see it going into the Canadian maritimes. I do not consider 90+ as great weather nor am I suggesting it will be 90+ soon.

I also no connection to any Chamber of Commerce.

R2B

Haha no no, I wasn't singling you out R2B. I think there is a broad consensus among novices (and even some experts) that the pattern has to change because we are somehow "due". Remember all those TV forecasts last week that proclaimed how nice this week would be?

The problem with patterns is that, by definition, they are hard to break and it usually takes a significant hemispheric event to do so. That's just not in the cards for the next couple of weeks. In fact (not to sound the alarm bells!) the 500mb pattern through early July looks awfully similar to early August of last year (-NAO/-AO).

Last year:
Attachment 2693

Forecast for next week:
Attachment 2694

I really hope this doesn't verify- our dock is already underwater and the last thing we need is more rain and cool temps. I'm with you though- 80s and dry is about as good as it gets. I just don't think we're going to see a lot of that over the next couple weeks.

[WinnDixie]

Originally Posted by meteotrade

The problem with patterns is that, by definition, they are hard to break and it usually takes a significant hemispheric event to do so. That's just not in the cards for the next couple of weeks. In fact (not to sound the alarm bells!) the 500mb pattern through early July looks awfully similar to early August of last year (-NAO/-AO).

I really hope this doesn't verify- our dock is already underwater and the last thing we need is more rain and cool temps. I'm with you though- 80s and dry is about as good as it gets. I just don't think we're going to see a lot of that over the next couple weeks.

OK...a meteorologist is saying this, and I guess it is no good splitting hairs over the meaning of " the next couple of weeks"...and Siksukr isn't going to help me...I didn't even spell his name right before...so...fine...I bow to Mother Nature....(meteotrade will be the first to tell me that's smart, I am sure!). I can eat lobster in the rain if I have to!

[Skip]

Originally Posted by meteotrade

...Haha no no, I wasn't singling you out R2B. I think there is a broad consensus among novices (and even some experts) that the pattern has to change because we are somehow "due". Remember all those TV forecasts last week that proclaimed how nice this week would be?

The problem with patterns is that, by definition, they are hard to break and it usually takes a significant hemispheric event to do so. That's just not in the cards for the next couple of weeks. In fact (not to sound the alarm bells!) the 500mb pattern through early July looks awfully similar to early August of last year (-NAO/-AO)... . I'm with you though- 80s and dry is about as good as it gets. I just don't think we're going to see a lot of that over the next couple weeks.

As much as I despise this weather, you hit the short and long range forecast right on the money...

Unfortunately there is apparently no real lasting relief from the damp for days to come....

[meteotrade]

Originally Posted by Skip

As much as I despise this weather, you hit the short and long range forecast right on the money...
(

Thanks! That's why they pay me the big bucks. But honestly there is no glory in forecasting bad weather... most people would rather blame you for the rain than thank you for calling it correctly.

I do have some good news this time around though. Chip's right... the weekend looks better as we get more of a westerly flow and some drier air works in. Shower/t-storm threat still alive but not as high as prv days.

Longer term there are still no signs of a pattern change, but I do think we'll see a slight pattern "shift". It's not a lot but it may be just enough to get some more significant dry air in next week and beyond. I don't see any sign of heat- below average temps right through the middle of the July. (just a reminder, a "normal" high for the Lakes region this time of year is about 80)

[SIKSUKR]

Just remember that everything usually averages out. Average rainfall and temps are just that, average. Both numbers are almost never acheived right on and that's why they are called averages. It's very rare for average temps to be more than 2 degrees off in a season so I would say we will see above average temps later in the summer. That's my forecast...yours may vary!

[WinnDixie]

Originally Posted by tpabrad

You can send some of that cooler weather down here to Florida, were roasting down here! High 90's last couple days with way too much humidity makes a pretty hot miserable day.

Same here in Alabama...gets to 98 everyday, and the relative humidity is about 95. The power went out for four hours the other night when it was in the 90's, too...now that's festive! Here's my question: I'm coming up there the end of July/beginning of August...Siksuker, can you have another little talk with the weather gods??? You could get pretty darn rich, you know, if you'd cultivate a really good working relationship with them!! I would like sunshine, mid-80's...and puh-leeze tell me you won't be in a long work schedule at that particular time!

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by chipj29

Keeping my fingers crossed for some improvement by the end of the week into the weekend. If we can get there, I think we will see more summer-like weather into the beginning of July.

Well, my fingers must have somehow come uncrossed, because I was way off on this one. Other than a couple nice days in between a bunch of crappy ones, it has been a bust.
I will go out on a bit of a limb and say that while we are not out of the woods, this weekend looks to have some improvement.

[This'nThat]

Originally Posted by Rose

I haven't had time to really look at anything, but my weather weenie husband doesn't see a break in the pattern until July. In these spring patterns, I always say take the forecast with a grain of salt...the north/south oscillations of those "stationary" fronts that set up in these patterns is very difficult to predict.

The July 2009 forecasts show below normal temps, and above normal rain. In other words -- no change.