When will this weather pattern change?

[meteotrade]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

My opinion of GREAT weather is low 80's with dew points in the low 60's. I see that coming Thursday through Monday, as long as the gale center does not back in from where I see it going into the Canadian maritimes. I do not consider 90+ as great weather nor am I suggesting it will be 90+ soon.

I also no connection to any Chamber of Commerce.

R2B

Haha no no, I wasn't singling you out R2B. I think there is a broad consensus among novices (and even some experts) that the pattern has to change because we are somehow "due". Remember all those TV forecasts last week that proclaimed how nice this week would be?

The problem with patterns is that, by definition, they are hard to break and it usually takes a significant hemispheric event to do so. That's just not in the cards for the next couple of weeks. In fact (not to sound the alarm bells!) the 500mb pattern through early July looks awfully similar to early August of last year (-NAO/-AO).

Last year:
Attachment 2693

Forecast for next week:
Attachment 2694

I really hope this doesn't verify- our dock is already underwater and the last thing we need is more rain and cool temps. I'm with you though- 80s and dry is about as good as it gets. I just don't think we're going to see a lot of that over the next couple weeks.

[WinnDixie]

Originally Posted by meteotrade

The problem with patterns is that, by definition, they are hard to break and it usually takes a significant hemispheric event to do so. That's just not in the cards for the next couple of weeks. In fact (not to sound the alarm bells!) the 500mb pattern through early July looks awfully similar to early August of last year (-NAO/-AO).

I really hope this doesn't verify- our dock is already underwater and the last thing we need is more rain and cool temps. I'm with you though- 80s and dry is about as good as it gets. I just don't think we're going to see a lot of that over the next couple weeks.

OK...a meteorologist is saying this, and I guess it is no good splitting hairs over the meaning of " the next couple of weeks"...and Siksukr isn't going to help me...I didn't even spell his name right before...so...fine...I bow to Mother Nature....(meteotrade will be the first to tell me that's smart, I am sure!). I can eat lobster in the rain if I have to!

[Skip]

Originally Posted by meteotrade

...Haha no no, I wasn't singling you out R2B. I think there is a broad consensus among novices (and even some experts) that the pattern has to change because we are somehow "due". Remember all those TV forecasts last week that proclaimed how nice this week would be?

The problem with patterns is that, by definition, they are hard to break and it usually takes a significant hemispheric event to do so. That's just not in the cards for the next couple of weeks. In fact (not to sound the alarm bells!) the 500mb pattern through early July looks awfully similar to early August of last year (-NAO/-AO)... . I'm with you though- 80s and dry is about as good as it gets. I just don't think we're going to see a lot of that over the next couple weeks.

As much as I despise this weather, you hit the short and long range forecast right on the money...

Unfortunately there is apparently no real lasting relief from the damp for days to come....

[meteotrade]

Originally Posted by Skip

As much as I despise this weather, you hit the short and long range forecast right on the money...
(

Thanks! That's why they pay me the big bucks. But honestly there is no glory in forecasting bad weather... most people would rather blame you for the rain than thank you for calling it correctly.

I do have some good news this time around though. Chip's right... the weekend looks better as we get more of a westerly flow and some drier air works in. Shower/t-storm threat still alive but not as high as prv days.

Longer term there are still no signs of a pattern change, but I do think we'll see a slight pattern "shift". It's not a lot but it may be just enough to get some more significant dry air in next week and beyond. I don't see any sign of heat- below average temps right through the middle of the July. (just a reminder, a "normal" high for the Lakes region this time of year is about 80)

[SIKSUKR]

Just remember that everything usually averages out. Average rainfall and temps are just that, average. Both numbers are almost never acheived right on and that's why they are called averages. It's very rare for average temps to be more than 2 degrees off in a season so I would say we will see above average temps later in the summer. That's my forecast...yours may vary!