Hurricane/tropical storm

[Belmont Resident]

Possible hurricane or tropical storm looks like it may hit our area the first of next week.

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Glad we have a nice weekend to be prepared for this potential storm! Should I put some weight on the docks to keep them in place?

[hilltopper]

By the looks of the path and timing, Sandy could out a huge damper on Halloween activities.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...large#contents

[SteveA]

Originally Posted by hilltopper

By the looks of the path and timing, Sandy could out a huge damper on Halloween activities.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...large#contents

'Damper" may very well be the key word.. last year we had the historic snowstorm on Halloween.. it was sad.. no kids showed up and we got stuck with two of those giant bags of candy you can buy at Sam's Club.

In all seriousness.. it was a bad storm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Halloween_nor'easter

[cillovely]

I hope it passes us and Halloween isn't a wash out. Luckily last year we were ok and the storm didn't effect us. But this year I have 108 pieces of full size candy from BJ's all set for this Wednesday. We do average 100 kids and if I use those pathetic little bars, I end up giving each kid 2 or 3 so it ends up being the same cost or even a bit less. So if I end up with all this candy I don't know what I'm going to do. I guess I'll bring most of it (except the Resse's) to work for the vultures

[GTO]

Originally Posted by cillovely

I hope it passes us and Halloween isn't a wash out. Luckily last year we were ok and the storm didn't effect us. But this year I have 108 pieces of full size candy from BJ's all set for this Wednesday. We do average 100 kids and if I use those pathetic little bars, I end up giving each kid 2 or 3 so it ends up being the same cost or even a bit less. So if I end up with all this candy I don't know what I'm going to do. I guess I'll bring most of it (except the Resse's) to work for the vultures

If you have that much left over and you don't have kids that will enjoy it.......send it to the troops overseas

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

I'm certainly not an alarmist. I've lived in New England long enough to know weather is something we deal with, and the news stations love hyping a good weather story. I don't like destruction, but I love big storms. I love weather!
I have been watching/reading about this storm for a couple of days. Yesterday morning I was sure that the possibility of another "perfect" storm, worse than the first because of the impact to inland areas, was just a lot of hype. Twenty-four hours later, I'm changing my view of this storm and already planning for it. Did a little stocking up this morning at the market. This weekend could/will be a zoo in the supermarkets.
Possibly lots of wind and rain, maybe even snow. With the leaves still on a lot of the trees you can count on wide spread power outages similar to the ice storm a couple years ago. I'm not convinced this will happen to the lakes region, but I am convinced the storm is going to be either a glancing blow OR a knock-out punch. Unfortunately, next week is going to be a very bad week for some parts of the northeast.

[hilltopper]

We shall see. Projected paths first thing this morning did not look good, but the updates at Noon look much better...for NH anyway. The storm seems to be shifting West. Either way, you're right. Some folks in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states are going to have a bad week.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...large#contents

[Resident 2B]

I believe that by the time Sandy gets to New England, if it gets this far north, it will be more like a big Nor'easter and less like a tropical system. This is good and bad, all at the same time.

A Nor'easter is a larger storm system, unlike a tropical system that is usually much smaller with a very intense center. However, as a larger system, the exact track does not really matter that much. It could cross the coast in northern NJ and we could still get a good amount of wind and rain. There will be a huge fetch with the storm, so the sea coast will get hit hard.

Another thing to keep in mind is the NHC is using models designed for tropical systems to forecast what will be a hybrid or a non-tropical system. As a result, there will be changes to the track and intensity during the period of time before it gets to us. Although the NWS and the NHC are part of NOAA, they have separate offices and forecasters. I am sure there are some interesting technical discussion going on at the NOAA level.

We will likely get a good rain and wind storm early next week. How bad is still TBD, but it is clearly something to watch very closely.

Time will tell!

R2B

[ClosetExtrovert]

And I'm looking out at the 120 foot oak tree that could take out my entire main floor. I know it's a healthy tree and I have it trimmed regularly, but when one of these storms hits, it scares me to no end. I have another 12 100+ foot trees out there, too. And as I recall, after last year's hurricane I swore I was going to take that tree down.

I'm getting a little nervous...It's supposed to hit us head on.

[Bear Island South]

Originally Posted by SteveA

'Damper" may very well be the key word.. last year we had the historic snowstorm on Halloween.. it was sad.. no kids showed up and we got stuck with two of those giant bags of candy you can buy at Sam's Club.

In all seriousness.. it was a bad storm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Halloween_nor'easter

This was morning after the the big storm last year.

[MDoug]

Originally Posted by ClosetExtrovert

And I'm looking out at the 120 foot oak tree that could take out my entire main floor. I know it's a healthy tree and I have it trimmed regularly, but when one of these storms hits, it scares me to no end. I have another 12 100+ foot trees out there, too. And as I recall, after last year's hurricane I swore I was going to take that tree down.

I'm getting a little nervous...It's supposed to hit us head on.

We called Chris Savage and his tree crew. They are now taking down a few dead/dying trees that could fall on the camp in high wind.

Good luck to you!

[bclaker]

The channel 9 weather guy called it "Frankenstorm".

[Rusty]

Latest prediction is that it will be gong north west when it hits the NYC, DC area. We'll still get some rain and wind, but not like the where it first comes on shore.

HOWEVER...
?
?
?
?

[BroadHopper]

take all these 'bad' weather without a flinch. Remember the ice storm I think in 2008? The condo association did not have electricity for 5 days. What we did have is natural gas. We would fire up our natural gas logs or use boat batteries and inverter to heat up the kitchen with natural gas oven.

[SIKSUKR]

I didn't have it for almost a week last Halloween.

[BroadHopper]

Originally Posted by Rusty

Latest prediction is that it will be gong north west when it hits the NYC, DC area. We'll still get some rain and wind, but not like the where it first comes on shore.

HOWEVER...
?
?
?
?

This is nothing new. Ill wind is always blowing in Washington.................

[BobbyA]

Thats funny

[Belmont Resident]

Just watched the weather and now they are saying it looks like the track may be further north and we may feel more effects.
Unfortunately until it actually hits we probably won't get anything accurate.
My question is, and many I've talked to concur, why are the European forecast models more accurate then ours?
More than one news station was reporting that our models were not as accurate as theirs are.

[Resident 2B]

For some reason, over the past few years, the European model, the ECMWF, has been more accurate than our models in forecasting east coast tropical weather 4 or so days out. Our model that is best at forecasting east coast tropical weather is the GFS, and that model is as good or better two or fewer days out. These are all "in my opinion". There are many other models, but these are the two go-to models for east coast tropical weather.

As it stands, the GFS is holding fast with the idea of a NYC/Long Island/South Coast hit. The forecasters are starting to wonder which of the models is correct. That is why you will start to hear, 'it might hit a bit farther north'.

No matter where the center hits land, this is a huge storm and something we have not really seen before, with the possible exception of the Perfect Storm in 1991 As a result, the models are dealing with something hardly ever seen. Therefore, we still need to pay very close attention to the forecast and at least think about preparing.

We will know more tomorrow and Sunday. This will be interesting!

R2B

[Belmont Resident]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

For some reason, over the past few years, the European model, the ECMWF, has been more accurate than our models in forecasting east coast tropical weather 4 or so days out. Our model that is best at forecasting east coast tropical weather is the GFS, and that model is as good or better two or fewer days out. These are all "in my opinion". There are many other models, but these are the two go-to models for east coast tropical weather.

As it stands, the GFS is holding fast with the idea of a NYC/Long Island/South Coast hit. The forecasters are starting to wonder which of the models is correct. That is why you will start to hear, 'it might hit a bit farther north'.

No matter where the center hits land, this is a huge storm and something we have not really seen before, with the possible exception of the Perfect Storm in 1991 As a result, the models are dealing with something hardly ever seen. Therefore, we still need to pay very close attention to the forecast and at least think about preparing.

We will know more tomorrow and Sunday. This will be interesting!

R2B

Thanks for the information. I have always wondered why forecasts for the most part more then 2-3 day out seem to be so inaccurate.

[trfour]

May be another Big One!!

The late-season storm has been dubbed "Frankenstorm" by some weather watchers because it will combine elements of a tropical cyclone and a winter storm. Forecast says residents can expect up to 2 feet of snow as Sandy reaches the U.S. coast around Halloween.
Hurricane Sandy, upgraded again Saturday just hours after forecasters said it had weakened to a tropical storm, was barreling north from the Caribbean and was expected to make landfall early Tuesday near the Delaware coast, then hit two winter weather systems as it moves inland, creating a hybrid monster storm.
http://t.news.msn.com/us/sandy-close...kenstorm-looms

Keep an EYE on this storm!


Terry
_________________________________

[codeman671]

Heading to Florida in the morning. For the second year in a row we will miss the mess!

I still have 2 boats on the water, each with 6 ropes on them. All furniture is put away and the cameras are on so I can see the progress from afar.

[Belmont Resident]

NECN is saying gusts to 60mph as far north as Laconia on Monday.
Winds will be the major factor in this storm with only 2-5 inches of rain expected.

[ApS]

This morning, the center of the storm is slated to make a sharp turn into the Pennsylvania area; however, the Lake still remains on the "bad side" of the storm.

[Rusty]

I rec'd an e-mail from a friend in southeast Pa and he said that people are lined up at stores waiting for trucks to arrive with new generators. Cabelas is one of the stores that has a long line waiting for them. I wonder how many are supposed to arrive at these stores.
People are really concerned about the potential damage around the Philadelphia area where the storm is projected hit first.

As you can see by the below hurricane tracker image, the storm is going to hit Philadelphia with 75 MPH winds:

[Belmont Resident]

I just fired up the generator.
I forgot I left gas in it from last time so I had to drain the tank and the carb bowl.
Once the new gas got through it purrred.
Wife says now that the generator is ready to go we won't loose power!!
That is the way it has gone ever since I got it.
I'll wait till tomorrow to get gas, it's crazy around town. Just stopped in Hannafords and you would think the worlds coming to an end.
That is not till due to happen till December

[SteveA]

Mt. Washington has already had 99.8MPH gusts.. you can see it here:

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/conditions.php

Also.. great source of Lake Level Weather Info.. (As Always!) is Black Cat

http://www.blackcatnh.com/weather/

[SIKSUKR]

Originally Posted by Rusty

People are really concerned about the potential damage around the Philadelphia area where the storm is projected hit first.

Wow,its going to jump right over NJ?

[Resident 2B]

A fairly strong band is about to impact the lake from south to north.

R2B

[SteveA]

It was NASTY on the Broads this afternoon. The Boss and I took a few pictures for all you folks that are missing all the fun!

[AC2717]

anyone willing to give updates from around the lake where they are?
SteveA thanks for the photos?
We received an email from PSNH a while ago and started to wonder as speaking to a friend in Hebron that it was pretty windy up there with lots of trees down and lots without power

[codeman671]

We must have lost power on Mark, my cameras have gone down within the last hour.

[Bear Island South]

Originally Posted by codeman671

We must have lost power on Mark, my cameras have gone down within the last hour.

Looks like power is on at Bear and Mark, just took this snapshot from our camera and I can see lights on across from us.


Sent from my XT907 using Tapatalk 2

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by Bear Island South

Looks like power is on at Bear and Mark, just took this snapshot from our camera and I can see lights on across from us.
Attachment 6931

Sent from my XT907 using Tapatalk 2

Odd, maybe fair point is down. Are you on Metrocast?

[Bear Island South]

Yes Metrocast
Also the power that feeds Mark comes through our property.

Sent from my XT907 using Tapatalk 2

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by Bear Island South

Yes Metrocast
Also the power that feeds Mark comes through our property.

Sent from my XT907 using Tapatalk 2

It feeds in next door to us. Must be our dsl.

[SteveA]

Power, cable A-OK as of 9 pm. Wind seems to be down a bit, but still occasional big gusts. Rain is harder than an hour ago, about 7 on a scale of 10.

[ishoot308]

My camera went down on Welch around 6:00 P.M. also.

Any info on power outages in the Gilford Ellacoya area?

Thanks!

Dan

[Lakegeezer]

Tonight, we've seen lots of wind, sustained in the 20-30 mph range, with a few higher gusts. Rain on and off, but too bad. Lots of power glitches, but nothing over a few seconds. Overall, minor impact so far.

[SteveA]

Few pictures from this morning.

A couple of breaks in the sky, still windy, but nothing like last night.

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

No power loss or visible damage by Christmas Island. My beach is on the north side of Paugus Bay so any wind was blowing away from us. It seemed the strongest band of wind/rain was through the 10:00 hour last night.
There were two loons riding out the storm (four, if you include my wife and I ) just off our dock. I watched and listened to them for a half hour. It was quite a change from the norm for me. I am very used to being stuck at the fire station for storms like this. Sitting on a dock instead of a fire truck is much better!

[HomeWood]

Not trying to get this too side tracked from the lakes region, but I thought I'd share a picture from a web cam here in the NC mountains. The town of Blowing Rock to be specific. I was tempted to make the 3 hr drive just to go play in the snow.

[dutchie4]

Does anyone know if there was any damage on Chase Island?

[ishoot308]

Looks like power was restored on Welch around 5:00 P.M. yesterday.

Dan

[Chaselady]

We were on Chase 2 days ago. Although we didn't walk the whole island we didn't see anything obvious when we drove around by boat.
The power was out but came back on yesterday.
Lot's of debris, though. The storm wind seemed to come out of the east so I think the western side was protected.

[chaseisland]

Thanks for the report chaselady. We are on the east side, but it sounds like no unexpected problems for us. Thanks again.

[gtxrider]

Originally Posted by SIKSUKR

Wow,its going to jump right over NJ?

Wish it would have jumped NJ. Lost power on Monday night about 7:30PM and was restored at 7:00AM Saturday. The power cables were on the ground across my lawn and driveway which made it impossible to get out out of the house on Tuesday morning. Still no phone or cable because the wires are on my lawn. Our network control center (NOC) is still running on generator. The main generator died on Wednesday and a back up generator was trucked in.

I to like big storms and watching the waves come down the lake but this was TOOO BIG.

I wonder how Cal made out down on the Jersey Shore?

[ClosetExtrovert]

Whoooo Hooooo!

That was one nasty storm. Hope you all are safe and warm. I have the heat CRANKING. It's amazing how comforting a cup of hot coffee is when you're in the middle of chaos.

Our shore is gone.

[ClosetExtrovert]

Originally Posted by gtxrider

Wish it would have jumped NJ. Lost power on Monday night about 7:30PM and was restored at 7:00AM Saturday. The power cables were on the ground across my lawn and driveway which made it impossible to get out out of the house on Tuesday morning. Still no phone or cable because the wires are on my lawn. Our network control center (NOC) is still running on generator. The main generator died on Wednesday and a back up generator was trucked in.

I to like big storms and watching the waves come down the lake but this was TOOO BIG.

I wonder how Cal made out down on the Jersey Shore?

Did you lose water in Piscataway? Middlessex water went down last night. It came back up this morning, but it's boil only.

[gtxrider]

Originally Posted by ClosetExtrovert

Did you lose water in Piscataway? Middlessex water went down last night. It came back up this morning, but it's boil only.

Water and natural gas were what I didn't lose so at least I could take a hot shower by candle light.... Still no phone or cable TV...

Hang on here comes Athena! SNOW?????

[hilltopper]

Have Winter storms always been named or is this something new?

[tis]

It's something new and I think it's stupid.

[hilltopper]

Originally Posted by tis

It's something new and I think it's stupid.

Agreed. All it does is give the media more ammunition to use to over-hype a storm.

Edit...

According to the Weather Channel, this is the reasoning:
•Naming a storm raises awareness.
•Attaching a name makes it much easier to follow a weather system’s progress.
•A storm with a name takes on a personality all its own, which adds to awareness.
•In today’s social media world, a name makes it much easier to reference in communication.
•A named storm is easier to remember and refer to in the future.

[Bear Island South]

With these storms part of history now, I am looking forward to a quiet warm weekend on the island.

[ClosetExtrovert]

Originally Posted by gtxrider

Water and natural gas were what I didn't lose so at least I could take a hot shower by candle light.... Still no phone or cable TV...

Hang on here comes Athena! SNOW?????

SNOW! What's next for us? Locusts? This is God's revenge for that Jersey Shore show. I'm sure of it. Snookie did this to us. LOL

[SIKSUKR]

Lucky for us that Jersey Shore show is no more after this years run. Unfortunately the pier with the roller coaster and all the other rides right across from the house they filmed at is also no more after Sandy. Strange having a chairlift on the beach too.

[bilproject]

After the last 2 weeks in Jersey I told the wife that living on the island year round would be a piece of cake. Last week 90 mile winds and 10' storm surge with 20 ft waves on top. Trees and power lines down every where. Got back power one week after the storm lost it again Wednesday night. More trees down with the 9" of snow than from Sandy. Another weekend will be spent cutting up trees and hauling away,