"Official" Ice Out Thread

[Slickcraft]

Originally Posted by welch-time

Hey, when you get there, can you go and fix my downed phone cable so I can see whats going on?
(just kidding, we should be there in 2 weeks)

We were there today and our DSL is working. Will be back by Monday but I just can't recall where I left my pole climbing boots, spikes, tether belt and tool bag

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

Ok .... as seen ten minutes ago, from the Shep Brown boat launch, the lake there is all clogged up with gray, yucky ice from Sheps out to Bear Island, in both directions.

As seen from the Y-Landing docks, viewed from Pine Island to Bear Island, and from Pine Island north toward Centre Harbor, is all clogged up with gray ice.

From the Y-Landing docks to Pine Island and to the nearby island with the large A-frame house, is all open water.

And from Rock Island, the ice line has moved south getting to just about one hundred yards north of Cattle Landing.

Meanwhile, in the last ten minutes , the wind has noticeably picked up, and today's weather indicates more windy breezes, so that could do impact on all this gray slushy ice.

After going slushy, ice loses its' buoyancy and sinks before it totally melts, so it's a combination of melting, absorbing water, going slushy, and sinking while going from winter white to yucky gray. The strong elastic winter white ice, made during the deep freeze, expands to 110% of its' liquid volume, which is why this ice will float on the surface. As it melts and mixes with water, it reaches a condition where it will no longer remain buoyant, and it sinks.

Contrary to what many believe... Lake ice does not sink.

[fatlazyless]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Contrary to what many believe... Lake ice does not sink.

From observing large areas of gray slushy ice disappear into the water, all at once, it seems to me the slush is both melting, losing buoyancy, and sinking, all at the same time.

Too big of an area of slush will disappear into the water, all at once, for it to be just melting, which leads me to think that the slush also sinks.

[Top-Water]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

which leads me to think

Ice floats on a lake's surface until it is melted. Although it sometimes floats low in the water, it does not sink to the bottom, as some mistakenly believe.


Water is heaviest at 39 degrees, lighter at higher or lower temperatures. Falling air temperatures in autumn and lower sun angles, in conjunction with wind and wave action, result in the lowering of lake temperatures. Because the cooler water is heavier, it will sink, displacing and forcing warmer water to the surface. This continues until the entire lake reaches a temperature of about 39 degrees.

Following this, surface temperatures will fall below 39 degrees and the cooler and lighter water will remain at the surface. As the surface water cools further, it will eventually change into ice.

Because the ice is colder and less dense than the water below it, it floats. In the spring, the reverse occurs. Rising air temperature and higher sun angles cause melting to begin on top of the ice layer.

If there are no cracks or fissures, the melting water will accumulate on top of the ice. If this happens over an entire lake (which is unlikely) or over parts of the lake, one might get the impression that the ice is sinking. But it isn't.


Further warming will cause the ice to become rotted or honeycombed, with water and air filling the void. The dark color of ice in late winter is because of this honeycombing. As the honeycombing process continues, the ice mass floats lower and lower in the water until it is completely melted, but it never sinks to the bottom.

One of the wonders of the planet earth and floating ice, without it the planet would more likely be dead.

[rsmlp]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

Ok .... as seen ten minutes ago, from the Shep Brown boat launch, the lake there is all clogged up with gray, yucky ice from Sheps out to Bear Island, in both directions.

As seen from the Y-Landing docks, viewed from Pine Island to Bear Island, and from Pine Island north toward Centre Harbor, is all clogged up with gray ice.

From the Y-Landing docks to Pine Island and to the nearby island with the large A-frame house, is all open water.

And from Rock Island, the ice line has moved south getting to just about one hundred yards north of Cattle Landing.

Meanwhile, in the last ten minutes , the wind has noticeably picked up, and today's weather indicates more windy breezes, so that could do impact on all this gray slushy ice.

After going slushy, ice loses its' buoyancy and sinks before it totally melts, so it's a combination of melting, absorbing water, going slushy, and sinking while going from winter white to yucky gray. The strong elastic winter white ice, made during the deep freeze, expands to 110% of its' liquid volume, which is why this ice will float on the surface. As it melts and mixes with water, it reaches a condition where it will no longer remain buoyant, and it sinks.

So my soon to be son-in-lawn has coined the term "Lescar-fact". Since our last name is Lescarbeau, a Lescar-fact is a False Fact said with such aplomb and confidence that anyone who didn't know any better would be convinced of its veracity when in fact it is spurious. It is a false fact! I am famous for them.

While I am admittedly unsure, this strikes me as a Lescar-fact!

[Pine Island Guy]

Made it to Pine Island from Y-Landing on Wednesday. Clear water in the channel and then pushed through the ice on the south side of the island around to the east... slow going!

with a little wind, it won't be more than a few days now till full ice out!! -PIG

[Mink Islander]

Fog eats ice though....

[8gv]

At the risk of being "that guy", I believe that the fog may be a result of the ice going away, not the cause of it.

Can someone set me straight on this belief?

[DickR]

Originally Posted by 8gv

At the risk of being "that guy", I believe that the fog may be a result of the ice going away, not the cause of it.

Can someone set me straight on this belief?

It's both. The fog forms close to the ice because the layer of air there is cooled below the dew point of the bulk air mass over us, which (for Moultonborough at 6:19pm) is 60 F. But the moisture in that somewhat humid air also is condensing at the ice surface, giving it about 1000 BTU/lb of moisture condensed. Compare that to about 143 BTU/lb of ice melted, and you have close to seven pounds of ice melted per pound of moisture condensed out of the air. Think of the ice as being a dehumidifier for the air. You wouldn't notice the fog if there were any wind, as that would keep the air layers mixed, but the rate of melting would be even higher. The mixing would bring the energy in the warmer, somewhat humid air to the ice surface faster.

[WINNI BOB]

The entire Weirs Beach area opened up late today. I caught my first salmon at 6:30 pm right in front of the Weirs Beach area. I could see open water all the way through the inside of Governors Island.

Whoppee !!!!


WINNI BOB

[8gv]

Riddle me this Batman...

As I understand it, ice out is declared by pilot Emerson who flies his plane over the lake to verify it is safe for the Mount Washington to make all of its stops.

But...

What if the weather conditions preclude safe flight and he has to wait a few days to go look? For instance, if the weather delayed the flight until Monday, say at 3pm, that could happen right?

Asking for a friend...

[Seaplane Pilot]

Originally Posted by 8gv

Riddle me this Batman...

As I understand it, ice out is declared by pilot Emerson who flies his plane over the lake to verify it is safe for the Mount Washington to make all of its stops.

But...

What if the weather conditions preclude safe flight and he has to wait a few days to go look? For instance, if the weather delayed the flight until Monday, say at 3pm, that could happen right?

Asking for a friend...

It will be ruled as “Obstruction of Ice Out” by Special Counsel. Emerson will be impeached for collusion with the ice gods...

[jeffk]

Originally Posted by Seaplane Pilot

It will be ruled as “Obstruction of Ice Out” by Special Counsel. Emerson will be impeached for collusion with the ice gods...

Au contraire. Since Emerson is Chief Ice Out Executive, we will simply have ice out declared in July and there will be no consequences. All the people who had ice out guesses will grumble and chip in to buy him a new plane that can fly in all types of weather.

[Sundancer320]

Anyone have eyes on 19 mile bay recently?

[The Real BigGuy]

Why do people think I’ve sinks? My recollection from chemistry/physics is that ice is less dense than water an therefore always floats on/in water. Even if it is saturated (in holes, crevices, etc) with the water that surrounds it will still be more buoyant.


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[Kerk]

19 mile was dark gray with a lot of open water around the shore. I would not be surprised to see it gone ANYTIME SOON. There is a Pontoon boat in at 19 Mile bay. Every where it looked real dark and ready to go out. Wolfboro etc. Just my opinion. kerk

[fatlazyless]

Originally Posted by The Real BigGuy

Why do people think I’ve sinks? My recollection from chemistry/physics is that ice is less dense than water an therefore always floats on/in water. Even if it is saturated (in holes, crevices, etc) with the water that surrounds it will still be more buoyant.[/url]

As the ice softens through the processes of melting and sublimation, it becomes slush, which is ice saturated with water, and along the cycle back to all water, it becomes a little heavier than water, and will slowly sink.

On a sunny day, from the shore, one can stand there, and watch the glistening slush as it slowly descends downward into the depths. The slush loses its' buoyancy and very slowly sinks.

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

As the ice softens through the processes of melting and sublimation, it becomes slush, which is ice saturated with water, and along the cycle back to all water, it becomes a little heavier than water, and will slowly sink.

On a sunny day, from the shore, one can stand there, and watch the glistening slush as it slowly descends downward into the depths. The slush loses its' buoyancy and very slowly sinks.

Science is based on facts that are not open to opinion. Admittedly there are scientific questions that have yet to be answered. Like how to measure quantum mechanics? Do parallel universes exist? However the science behind ice floating is not an open question.

Try a simple internet search.

[Top-Water]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Science is based on facts that are not open to opinion. Admittedly there are scientific questions that have yet to be answered. Like how to measure quantum mechanics? Do parallel universes exist? However the science behind ice floating is not an open question.

Try a simple internet search.

Double thanks .......... As you correctly stated "Science is based on facts that are not open to opinion."

[MAXUM]

So what do you call an "opinionated" scientist?

[Top-Water]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

So what do you call an "opinionated" scientist?

In a one word answer?

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

So what do you call an "opinionated" scientist?

A Climate Change denier.

[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

A Climate Change denier.

Unless of course you read this article:

The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from the Consulate at Bergen, Norway.

Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard of temperatures in the Arctic zone.

Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes.

Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm

Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.

Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.

Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coast cities uninhabitable.



I must apologize. I neglected to mention that this report was from November 2 , 1922, as reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post 96 years ago. This must have been caused by the Model T Ford's emissions or possibly from horse and cattle flatulence.

[tis]

Wow, that's a good one. I must admit you had me till the last!! Sounds so familiar!!

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

Unless of course you read this article:

The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from the Consulate at Bergen, Norway.

Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard of temperatures in the Arctic zone.

Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes.

Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm

Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.

Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.

Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coast cities uninhabitable.



I must apologize. I neglected to mention that this report was from November 2 , 1922, as reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post 96 years ago. This must have been caused by the Model T Ford's emissions or possibly from horse and cattle flatulence.

Did you start with your own beliefs then look for data or articles that support your ideas? That's hardly "scientific".

Perhaps that article was written to support a political position. Perhaps it was just wrong. Perhaps the author was simply tying to create a sensational article that would create interest. It succeed in sparking your interest 97 years later. Perhaps the author, like you, started with a preconceived notion and looked for data or reports to support that belief.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Did you start with your own beliefs then look for data or articles that support your ideas? That's hardly "scientific".

Perhaps that article was written to support a political position. Perhaps it was just wrong. Perhaps the author was simply tying to create a sensational article that would create interest. It succeed in sparking your interest 97 years later. Perhaps the author, like you, started with a preconceived notion and looked for data or reports to support that belief.

Are we really to the point that we do not believe anything anymore? We are questioning the agenda of an article written almost 100 years ago.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by joey2665

Are we really to the point that we do not believe anything anymore? We are questioning the agenda of an article written almost 100 years ago.

No on both counts--

It is the agenda of people using the article today that has been questioned.

It is climate change deniers who have a hard time believing things in the face of overwhelming evidence.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

No on both counts--



It is the agenda of people using the article today that has been questioned.



It is climate change deniers who have a hard time believing things in the face of overwhelming evidence.

Sorry on both accounts. They are denying the source author of the article and I do think climate change is over exaggerated


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[Descant]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Did you start with your own beliefs then look for data or articles that support your ideas? That's hardly "scientific".

Perhaps that article was written to support a political position. Perhaps it was just wrong. Perhaps the author was simply tying to create a sensational article that would create interest. It succeed in sparking your interest 97 years later. Perhaps the author, like you, started with a preconceived notion and looked for data or reports to support that belief.

Or perhaps we're getting bored watching ice melt?

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Did you start with your own beliefs then look for data or articles that support your ideas? That's hardly "scientific".

Perhaps that article was written to support a political position. Perhaps it was just wrong. Perhaps the author was simply tying to create a sensational article that would create interest. It succeed in sparking your interest 97 years later. Perhaps the author, like you, started with a preconceived notion and looked for data or reports to support that belief.

[fatlazyless]

Originally Posted by DEJ

No, it's not off topic.

With google, any nitwit can easily find multiple references on any one topic, idea, person, historical event or anything else ...... and is pretty easy to find a reference that supports what you already were thinking or whatever agenda you are promoting ..... I do it all the time.

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

No, it's not off topic.

With google, any nitwit can easily find multiple references on any one topic, idea, person, historical event or anything else ...... and is pretty easy to find a reference that supports what you already were thinking or whatever agenda you are promoting ..... I do it all the time.

I rest my case.

[Sundancer320]

Can we please keep this thread for ice conditions and open water and NOT political environmental back and forth?

[rscalzo]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Science is based on facts that are not open to opinion. Admittedly there are scientific questions that have yet to be answered.

Like the question that has baffled man for eons.....

[trfour]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

As the ice softens through the processes of melting and sublimation, it becomes slush, which is ice saturated with water, and along the cycle back to all water, it becomes a little heavier than water, and will slowly sink.

It's Okay fll, all O them loose screws in my brain cavity get lonesome on occasion Too...

[webmaster]

In case anyone missed it here is why there was no Ice-Out yesterday. It should happen this morning. (photo by Emerson Aviation)

[jeffk]

Originally Posted by webmaster

In case anyone missed it here is why there was no Ice-Out yesterday. It should happen this morning. (photo by Emerson Aviation)

It's comedic that all the ice is gathered around the Mount in Center Harbor. I can almost imagine a bunch of boats the previous night gathering all the remaining pieces of ice from around the lake and pushing them into place for this picture.

[tis]

Originally Posted by jeffk

It's comedic that all the ice is gathered around the Mount in Center Harbor. I can almost imagine a bunch of boats the previous night gathering all the remaining pieces of ice from around the lake and pushing them into place for this picture.

It is! Years ago that ice would not have impeded ice out from being declared.

[pondguy]

Beware of sunken ice in Center Harbor bay.

[fatlazyless]

Originally Posted by pondguy

Beware of sunken ice in Center Harbor bay.

Each and every year, it's the same ice out there, on top of the lake. What happens is that ice sinks down to the bottom in April, and then the same ice re-surfaces back up in January.

Is the cycle of ice ...... been going on around here since 1621.

[Barney Bear]

Perhaps the ice was gone before midnight on the 23rd (which was this old moth-eaten bear's guess). 🐻

[Descant]

Originally Posted by Barney Bear

Perhaps the ice was gone before midnight on the 23rd (which was this old moth-eaten bear's guess). 🐻

There used to be a raft in Weirs Bay with a flagpole that fell when the ice could not support it. That triggered a clock and an "after dark" ice out was possible. Now that we use a visual inspection, I don't think an after dark guess will win.

For the climate changers: 131 years ago there were no dock bubblers. 75 years ago, there were no dock bubblers. 50 years ago, only a few. Now, in some areas, you can't walk from shore to solid ice. Even islanders are using bubblers where not so long ago there was no electricity. Do such things affect the waters/ice? Perhaps not individually, but combined with other human activity...

[8gv]

Ice out has been declared but at the wrong date and time.

It should have been declared at 3pm on Monday as all the polls indicated it would.

I demand a recount, investigation and a do over!!!

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

Each and every year, it's the same ice out there, on top of the lake. What happens is that ice sinks down to the bottom in April, and then the same ice re-surfaces back up in January.

Is the cycle of ice ...... been going on around here since 1621.

So... the Pilgrims had something to do with the "cycle of ice"?

[steve-on-mark]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

So... the Pilgrims had something to do with the "cycle of ice"?

Of course....they really wanted to take the Mayflower to Endicott Rock, not Plymouth Rock. They couldn't....iced in...

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[fatlazyless]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

So... the Pilgrims had something to do with the "cycle of ice"?

Why yes, they did, not in an historical sense, but in a chronological sense. Prior to that winter back in 1621, there was no records kept, but starting on Feb 1, 1621, thy Pilgrims established an ice out cash lottery known as the Ice Cycle Lottery which quickly became known as the cash icicle.

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

Each and every year, it's the same ice out there, on top of the lake. What happens is that ice sinks down to the bottom in April, and then the same ice re-surfaces back up in January.

Is the cycle of ice ...... been going on around here since 1621.

Is that a noodle assisted resurfacing?

[Top-Water]

Originally Posted by The Real BigGuy

Why do people think I’ve sinks? My recollection from chemistry/physics is that ice is less dense than water an therefore always floats on/in water.

You are correct It always always always always always floats.

[BoatHouse]

Wolfeboro bay is “slushed” in, but there appears to be open water before the point and out toward Barndoor.


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[chaseisland]

When swimming I always wondered why the water was colder deeper down. It's all that sunken slushy ice. And I'll see the Easter bunny tomorrow.

[Biggd]

My mind is going slushy reading this thread!

[The Real BigGuy]

FLL fresh water is never more dense than fresh water. As long as the “slush” (water & ice) contains ice, again which is less dense than water it will float, not sink. And by the way sublimation is the transition from a solid directly to a gas. Fresh water ice doesn’t do that, it melts to water.


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[chaseisland]

Hate to be disagreeable, but a small amount of ice will sublime to vapor and become incorporated into the atmosphere. When the conditions are right the sublimed water vapor will condense and become fog (which then eats more ice).

[DickR]

Originally Posted by chaseisland

Hate to be disagreeable, but a small amount of ice will sublime to vapor and become incorporated into the atmosphere. When the conditions are right the sublimed water vapor will condense and become fog (which then eats more ice).

Further to this, ice does indeed sublime, even if well below the melting point, because it, too, exerts vapor pressure into the space above it. Visible proof if this is when driving in cold weather; if there is any thin film of ice on the windshield (from whatever source), driving along in that cold, dry air results in that ice evaporating to nothing.

The situation of ice melting in water is unique in that 32 F is the "triple point" of water, at which you can have water, ice floating in it, and a water vapor space above it (very cold steam, at that very low pressure), all in thermal equilibrium. Also, as part of that definition, the vapor pressure exerted by ice (0.08854 psi) is the same as the pressure exerted by liquid water. However, by enthalpy balance, the heat of sublimation (energy absorbed going from solid ice to vapor is the total of heat of fusion (143 BTU/lb) plus heat of vaporization (1075.8). Any ice that sublimes or water that evaporates into the air above it absorbs the heat it needs to do so mostly from the water and partly from the air in contact with the surface (that theoretically would cause some water to refreeze if done slowly). Condensing that water vapor back onto the water/ice surface would just return the energy absorbed by turning into vapor, so it's mostly a wash (I guess that's a pun, too).

[Mink Islander]

When do discussions of lake ice melting move from the sublime to the ridiculous? Asking for a friend. Lol.

Love the science talk but couldn’t resist....

[jethro]

That's it, I'm going trolling tomorrow no matter if I hear from Emerson or not!

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[joey2665]

Had me also. Article is is available online?


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[Cobalt 25]

Yes, I would like to see the source of the information from 1922.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Cobalt 25

Yes, I would like to see the source of the information from 1922.

It’s says Consulate of Bergen, Norway and printed in the Washington Post November 2, 1922


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[Merrymeeting]

Originally Posted by joey2665

It’s says Consulate of Bergen, Norway and printed in the Washington Post November 2, 1922


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Yes, but the question is, was it? Until someone can post a link to the actual article, it isn't fact.

[MAXUM]

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/warm-welcome/

https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpr..._wx_review.png

[8gv]

So we are still on track for 4/22 at 3pm then.

I shall prepare my acceptance speech.

[steve-on-mark]

Originally Posted by 8gv

So we are still on track for 4/22 at 3pm then.

I shall prepare my acceptance speech.

I predicted an earlier ice out this year...so much for that. All I can hope for now is to win the Two Barns " name the beer" contest...bottoms up!

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[Lakegirl24]

I’ve been saying the 22nd all along! I’ll be SO EXCITED if I’m right this year! I don’t know about all of you but I’m ready to get back out on the lake!!!!

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by 8gv

So we are still on track for 4/22 at 3pm then.

I shall prepare my acceptance speech.

That would be to controversial.

[FlyingScot]

It's kind of silly to suggest that because somebody may have been wrong a hundred years ago that the entire scientific community is wrong today. And it's ironic to use a fact check site that may show one article in favor of climate change denial when that same site likely shows about a thousand (a million?) other references that support climate change

[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Did you start with your own beliefs then look for data or articles that support your ideas? That's hardly "scientific".

Perhaps that article was written to support a political position. Perhaps it was just wrong. Perhaps the author was simply tying to create a sensational article that would create interest. It succeed in sparking your interest 97 years later. Perhaps the author, like you, started with a preconceived notion and looked for data or reports to support that belief.

Your presumptions could not be more incorrect. And I assume you know what is often said about people who assume things. The article was emailed to me by a friend. I laughed when I read it because of the last sentence and I shared it because I though other people would too. It's that simple.

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

It's kind of silly to suggest that because somebody may have been wrong a hundred years ago that the entire scientific community is wrong today. And it's ironic to use a fact check site that may show one article in favor of climate change denial when that same site likely shows about a thousand (a million?) other references that support climate change

I am not sure when you had the time to interview "the entire scientific community" but you must have missed a few scientists. I can assure you that there are plenty of scientists that disagree with a lot of the global warming or climate change (or whatever they call it this week) theories.

I don't know what is right at this time but it is pretty obvious the the person quoted in the article was wrong about climate change 100 years ago. Most of the predictions never came true.

From another source:

The Great Global Warming Swindle

The Great Global Warming Swindle is a polemical documentary film that suggests that the scientific opinion on climate change is influenced by funding and political factors, and questions whether scientific consensus on global warming exists.

The film, made by British television producer Martin Durkin, presents scientists, economists, politicians, writers, and others who dispute the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. The programme's publicity materials assert that man-made global warming is "a lie" and "the biggest scam of modern times."


So, sometimes when you only listen to people who agree with you it tends to skew your opinions, and if what is said confirms your opinions, you feel it validates them.

In life, and in politics, that can often work against you.

And then there is this:

31,487 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,029 with PhDs (Must be some of the scientists missed by FlyingScot)

[8gv]

Yeah but...

Did Emerson get the plane out of the hangar yet?

I have been running the fog machine all night...

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

Your presumptions could not be more incorrect. And I assume you know what is often said about people who assume things. The article was emailed to me by a friend. I laughed when I read it because of the last sentence and I shared it because I though other people would too. It's that simple.



I am not sure when you had the time to interview "the entire scientific community" but you must have missed a few scientists. I can assure you that there are plenty of scientists that disagree with a lot of the global warming or climate change (or whatever they call it this week) theories.

I don't know what is right at this time but it is pretty obvious the the person quoted in the article was wrong about climate change 100 years ago. Most of the predictions never came true.

From another source:

The Great Global Warming Swindle

The Great Global Warming Swindle is a polemical documentary film that suggests that the scientific opinion on climate change is influenced by funding and political factors, and questions whether scientific consensus on global warming exists.

The film, made by British television producer Martin Durkin, presents scientists, economists, politicians, writers, and others who dispute the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. The programme's publicity materials assert that man-made global warming is "a lie" and "the biggest scam of modern times."


So, sometimes when you only listen to people who agree with you it tends to skew your opinions, and if what is said confirms your opinions, you feel it validates them.

In life, and in politics, that can often work against you.

And then there is this:

31,487 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,029 with PhDs (Must be some of the scientists missed by FlyingScot)

It's incredible how people can get sucked into internet fakes. That "Petition" has been circulated for more that twenty years. Snopes declare it to be false. Included as signatories are the Spice Girls band and most of the character in Star Wars. And the funding originated with the oil industry.

It only takes a few seconds to check out things on Snopes BEFORE you post.

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

It's incredible how people can get sucked into internet fakes. That "Petition" has been circulated for more that twenty years. Snopes declare it to be false. Included as signatories are the Spice Girls band and most of the character in Star Wars. And the funding originated with the oil industry.

It only takes a few seconds to check out things on Snopes BEFORE you post.

This is a thread about ice conditions on the lake, please stay on topic or start another thread.

[Mink Islander]

You gotta complaint about what’s happening on a particular thread, I suggest you relay your concern to the moderator rather than playing net nanny for the rest of us. He’s actually does quite a good job if you let him.

Just sayin’.

Oh, and I know, I’m contributing by bitching about the people who are bitching! LOL.

[JasJackson]

Center Harbor is clearing quite nicely from the pics Emerson posted on FB 4 hours ago. 2 views by Long Island Bridge near Trexlers.

[JasJackson]

Top: a view looking NW towards Center Harbor. Bottom: a view looking SE into Moultonborough Bay

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by DEJ

This is a thread about ice conditions on the lake, please stay on topic or start another thread.

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

[LIforrelaxin]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

I agree .....

However your stance of ice out getting later over time, indicates not necessarily global warming, but rather a shift in the timing of the season, in our "calendar year"..... These things can be shown or not scientifically, however screaming global warming has a much better chaotic effect to it.

I am not saying that global warming isn't a real thing.... but I also believe with more study we might find some additional shifts and re-alignments going on, as mother natures determines and figures out how to deal with the biggest environmental challenge on earth "MAN"

Yep I just went there............

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by LIforrelaxin

I agree .....

However your stance of ice out getting later over time, indicates not necessarily global warming, but rather a shift in the timing of the season, in our "calendar year"..... These things can be shown or not scientifically, however screaming global warming has a much better chaotic effect to it.

I am not saying that global warming isn't a real thing.... but I also believe with more study we might find some additional shifts and re-alignments going on, as mother natures determines and figures out how to deal with the biggest environmental challenge on earth "MAN"

Yep I just went there............

PLEASE start another thread if you want to continue to discuss global warming. Thanks.

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

PLEASE start another thread if you wish to discuss global warming, thank you.

[webmaster]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

The problem is that this thread is for Ice-Out updates. If you want to start another thread about Climate Change and the lake you are welcome to do so but this thread should be about the status of the lake ice during this period.

For those interested in that other topic check the data on our Ice-Out page that shows the Ice-Out dates for the last 130 or so years.

[JasJackson]

With the latest view from Center Harbor Inn, it looks as though the Mount Washington can leave her winter port and head back to The Weirs...

https://centerharborinn.com/winnipesaukee-webcam/

Ice out 4/23/19 @ 6:10a? Wakey wakey eggs ‘n bakey Emerson Aviation!

[ericnh]

Originally Posted by JasJackson

With the latest view from Center Harbor Inn, it looks as though the Mount Washington can leave her winter port and head back to The Weirs...

https://centerharborinn.com/winnipesaukee-webcam/

Ice out 4/23/19 @ 6:10a? Wakey wakey eggs ‘n bakey Emerson Aviation!

Drove through Center Harbor on Monday afternoon and still has plenty of ice.

[rsmlp]

Originally Posted by webmaster

The problem is that this thread is for Ice-Out updates. If you want to start another thread about Climate Change and the lake you are welcome to do so but this thread should be about the status of the lake ice during this period.

For those interested in that other topic check the data on our Ice-Out page that shows the Ice-Out dates for the last 130 or so years.

Right on. BTW, a cursory review of ice out dates suggests the median to be right about now, maybe a day later or so.

[ApS]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake? I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

Yeah! Where was Emerson Aviation in 1887?

Oh wait: Emerson Aviation has just made an announcement—which I quote:

"Covfefe"

[Fever29]

Emerson just posted an update... looks like ice out could be this afternoon!

"Closing in on ice out. As of 11:00 Center Harbor is holding on but just barely."

[pondguy]

Originally Posted by Fever29

Emerson just posted an update... looks like ice out could be this afternoon!

"Closing in on ice out. As of 11:00 Center Harbor is holding on but just barely."

It could sink any minute now !

[MDoug]

NHEC crew got to Bear when ice cleared enough and restored power just now.

[nj2nh]

Originally Posted by pondguy

It could sink any minute now !

I read an article recently that sinking ice is a myth. It cannot and does not sink. Always thought it did, too.


Sent from my iPad using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[Fever29]

So close!!

[nj2nh]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

Earliest ice out ever was in 2016. So much for it getting later.


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[Biggd]

Originally Posted by nj2nh

Earliest ice out ever was in 2016. So much for it getting later.


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

That was a strange winter. I remember walking around Meredith at Christmas time in a T-shirt.

[Pricestavern]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

[MAXUM]

See there you go, proof that ice sinks faster today than it did in the late 1800's.

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

Good work!

That graph is very telling. It especially shows the change in the last 40 years. My anecdotal perceptions were wrong.

Looks to me like an indication of Climate Change.

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Good work!

Looks to me like an indication of Climate Change.

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by DEJ

You post a quote of my post but you edit my quote to change my meaning! Totally unfair.

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

You post a quote of my post but you edit my quote to change my meaning! Totally unfair.

Cry me a river. Please read post #186.

[luckypete]

Missed it by 37 hours and 9 minutes! HA

[Garcia]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

Thanks! The graph supports my less than scientific memory of the ice going out in late April when I was a child. Now I plan to have the dock in and camp open in mid April (certainly by the third week or so). A year like this year seems late - then again, maybe I’m just less patient as I get older!

[rsmlp]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting. Thank you

[Pricestavern]

Originally Posted by rsmlp

I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting. Thank you

Well, if you take April 26 as = 125 (number of days since Jan 1) and April 13 as 102, the difference is 13 days. That amounts to an 11.3% shortening in 131 years. I'm not a statistician either and I don't know how you'd determine statistical significance based on a single set of 131 years of data. But it feels like an 11 percent change is pretty significant. The cause? I'll let others debate that.

It would be interesting to try and superimpose 10 year avg low and high April temperatures (if you can find reliable temperature data back that far) to see if there is correlation, though maybe a combined March-April average would be a better view of temperature effect on melting. One could definitely get lost down this rabbit hole if they had the time.

[C-Bass]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

Well, if you take April 26 as = 125 (number of days since Jan 1) and April 13 as 102, the difference is 13 days. That amounts to an 11.3% shortening in 131 years. I'm not a statistician either and I don't know how you'd determine statistical significance based on a single set of 131 years of data. But it feels like an 11 percent change is pretty significant. The cause? I'll let others debate that.

It would be interesting to try and superimpose 10 year avg low and high April temperatures (if you can find reliable temperature data back that far) to see if there is correlation, though maybe a combined March-April average would be a better view of temperature effect on melting. One could definitely get lost down this rabbit hole if they had the time.

The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.