Hurricane/tropical storm

Belmont Resident · 10-26-2012, 05:49 PM

Just watched the weather and now they are saying it looks like the track may be further north and we may feel more effects.
Unfortunately until it actually hits we probably won't get anything accurate.
My question is, and many I've talked to concur, why are the European forecast models more accurate then ours?
More than one news station was reporting that our models were not as accurate as theirs are.

Resident 2B · 10-26-2012, 09:17 PM

For some reason, over the past few years, the European model, the ECMWF, has been more accurate than our models in forecasting east coast tropical weather 4 or so days out. Our model that is best at forecasting east coast tropical weather is the GFS, and that model is as good or better two or fewer days out. These are all "in my opinion". There are many other models, but these are the two go-to models for east coast tropical weather.

As it stands, the GFS is holding fast with the idea of a NYC/Long Island/South Coast hit. The forecasters are starting to wonder which of the models is correct. That is why you will start to hear, 'it might hit a bit farther north'.

No matter where the center hits land, this is a huge storm and something we have not really seen before, with the possible exception of the Perfect Storm in 1991 As a result, the models are dealing with something hardly ever seen. Therefore, we still need to pay very close attention to the forecast and at least think about preparing.

We will know more tomorrow and Sunday. This will be interesting!

R2B

Belmont Resident · 10-27-2012, 04:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

For some reason, over the past few years, the European model, the ECMWF, has been more accurate than our models in forecasting east coast tropical weather 4 or so days out. Our model that is best at forecasting east coast tropical weather is the GFS, and that model is as good or better two or fewer days out. These are all "in my opinion". There are many other models, but these are the two go-to models for east coast tropical weather.

As it stands, the GFS is holding fast with the idea of a NYC/Long Island/South Coast hit. The forecasters are starting to wonder which of the models is correct. That is why you will start to hear, 'it might hit a bit farther north'.

No matter where the center hits land, this is a huge storm and something we have not really seen before, with the possible exception of the Perfect Storm in 1991 As a result, the models are dealing with something hardly ever seen. Therefore, we still need to pay very close attention to the forecast and at least think about preparing.

We will know more tomorrow and Sunday. This will be interesting!

R2B

Thanks for the information. I have always wondered why forecasts for the most part more then 2-3 day out seem to be so inaccurate.

trfour · 10-27-2012, 03:28 PM

May be another Big One!!

The late-season storm has been dubbed "Frankenstorm" by some weather watchers because it will combine elements of a tropical cyclone and a winter storm. Forecast says residents can expect up to 2 feet of snow as Sandy reaches the U.S. coast around Halloween.
Hurricane Sandy, upgraded again Saturday just hours after forecasters said it had weakened to a tropical storm, was barreling north from the Caribbean and was expected to make landfall early Tuesday near the Delaware coast, then hit two winter weather systems as it moves inland, creating a hybrid monster storm.
http://t.news.msn.com/us/sandy-close...kenstorm-looms

Keep an EYE on this storm!

Terry
_________________________________

codeman671 · 10-27-2012, 04:47 PM

Heading to Florida in the morning. For the second year in a row we will miss the mess!

I still have 2 boats on the water, each with 6 ropes on them. All furniture is put away and the cameras are on so I can see the progress from afar.

Belmont Resident · 10-27-2012, 06:44 PM

NECN is saying gusts to 60mph as far north as Laconia on Monday.
Winds will be the major factor in this storm with only 2-5 inches of rain expected.

ApS · 10-28-2012, 08:46 AM

This morning, the center of the storm is slated to make a sharp turn into the Pennsylvania area; however, the Lake still remains on the "bad side" of the storm.

Belmont Resident · 10-28-2012, 03:56 PM

I just fired up the generator.

I forgot I left gas in it from last time so I had to drain the tank and the carb bowl.
Once the new gas got through it purrred.
Wife says now that the generator is ready to go we won't loose power!!

That is the way it has gone ever since I got it.
I'll wait till tomorrow to get gas, it's crazy around town. Just stopped in Hannafords and you would think the worlds coming to an end.

That is not till due to happen till December

SteveA · 10-29-2012, 01:19 PM

Mt. Washington has already had 99.8MPH gusts.. you can see it here:

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/conditions.php

Also.. great source of Lake Level Weather Info.. (As Always!) is Black Cat

http://www.blackcatnh.com/weather/

10-26-2012, 05:49 PM	#1
Belmont Resident Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Belmont NH but prefer Jackman Maine Posts: 1,857 Thanks: 491 Thanked 410 Times in 251 Posts	Latest trend is further north Just watched the weather and now they are saying it looks like the track may be further north and we may feel more effects. Unfortunately until it actually hits we probably won't get anything accurate. My question is, and many I've talked to concur, why are the European forecast models more accurate then ours? More than one news station was reporting that our models were not as accurate as theirs are. __________________ "better to have a short life that is full of what you like doing, then a long life spent in a miserable way.."

10-27-2012, 03:28 PM	#4
trfour Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: The Lakes, Central NH. and Dallas/Fort Worth TX. Posts: 3,694 Blog Entries: 3 Thanks: 3,069 Thanked 472 Times in 236 Posts	"Frankenstorm" May be another Big One!! The late-season storm has been dubbed "Frankenstorm" by some weather watchers because it will combine elements of a tropical cyclone and a winter storm. Forecast says residents can expect up to 2 feet of snow as Sandy reaches the U.S. coast around Halloween. Hurricane Sandy, upgraded again Saturday just hours after forecasters said it had weakened to a tropical storm, was barreling north from the Caribbean and was expected to make landfall early Tuesday near the Delaware coast, then hit two winter weather systems as it moves inland, creating a hybrid monster storm. http://t.news.msn.com/us/sandy-close...kenstorm-looms Keep an EYE on this storm! Terry _________________________________ __________________ *trfour* Always Remember, The Best Safety Device In The Boat, or on a PWC Snowmobile etc., Is YOU! Safe sledding tips and much more; http://www.snowmobile.org/snowmobiling-safety.html

10-27-2012, 06:44 PM	#6
Belmont Resident Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Belmont NH but prefer Jackman Maine Posts: 1,857 Thanks: 491 Thanked 410 Times in 251 Posts	Necn NECN is saying gusts to 60mph as far north as Laconia on Monday. Winds will be the major factor in this storm with only 2-5 inches of rain expected. __________________ "better to have a short life that is full of what you like doing, then a long life spent in a miserable way.."

10-28-2012, 03:56 PM	#8
Belmont Resident Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Belmont NH but prefer Jackman Maine Posts: 1,857 Thanks: 491 Thanked 410 Times in 251 Posts	I'm ready! I just fired up the generator. I forgot I left gas in it from last time so I had to drain the tank and the carb bowl. Once the new gas got through it purrred. Wife says now that the generator is ready to go we won't loose power!! That is the way it has gone ever since I got it. I'll wait till tomorrow to get gas, it's crazy around town. Just stopped in Hannafords and you would think the worlds coming to an end. That is not till due to happen till December __________________ "better to have a short life that is full of what you like doing, then a long life spent in a miserable way.."

10-29-2012, 01:19 PM	#9
SteveA Deceased Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Gilford, NH Posts: 2,311 Thanks: 1,070 Thanked 2,054 Times in 497 Posts	Mt. Washington has already had 99.8MPH gusts.. you can see it here: http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/conditions.php Also.. great source of Lake Level Weather Info.. (As Always!) is Black Cat http://www.blackcatnh.com/weather/ __________________ "Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry he'll be a mile away and barefoot!" unknown

10-26-2012, 09:17 PM	#2
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,358 Thanks: 996 Thanked 314 Times in 164 Posts	For some reason, over the past few years, the European model, the ECMWF, has been more accurate than our models in forecasting east coast tropical weather 4 or so days out. Our model that is best at forecasting east coast tropical weather is the GFS, and that model is as good or better two or fewer days out. These are all "in my opinion". There are many other models, but these are the two go-to models for east coast tropical weather. As it stands, the GFS is holding fast with the idea of a NYC/Long Island/South Coast hit. The forecasters are starting to wonder which of the models is correct. That is why you will start to hear, 'it might hit a bit farther north'. No matter where the center hits land, this is a huge storm and something we have not really seen before, with the possible exception of the Perfect Storm in 1991 As a result, the models are dealing with something hardly ever seen. Therefore, we still need to pay very close attention to the forecast and at least think about preparing. We will know more tomorrow and Sunday. This will be interesting! R2B

The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Resident 2B For This Useful Post:
Belmont Resident (10-27-2012), Jonas Pilot (10-27-2012), Pineedles (10-27-2012), trfour (10-26-2012)

10-27-2012, 04:47 PM	#5
codeman671 Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 3,552 Thanks: 222 Thanked 837 Times in 505 Posts	Heading to Florida in the morning. For the second year in a row we will miss the mess! I still have 2 boats on the water, each with 6 ropes on them. All furniture is put away and the cameras are on so I can see the progress from afar.

10-28-2012, 08:46 AM	#7
ApS Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Florida (Sebring & Keys), Wolfeboro Posts: 6,041 Thanks: 2,281 Thanked 788 Times in 564 Posts	This morning, the center of the storm is slated to make a sharp turn into the Pennsylvania area; however, the Lake still remains on the "bad side" of the storm.