2018 Ice Out Progress

[SAB1]

Fished today out in front of 20 mile bay, 19 mile bay and whortleberry island. Good 20 inches of ice. Game wardens stopped by. They rode sleds from Alton up thru the broads past barbers pole to our area. Said the broads had consistent 10-12 inches of ice.

[tis]

Originally Posted by SAB1

Fished today out in front of 20 mile bay, 19 mile bay and whortleberry island. Good 20 inches of ice. Game wardens stopped by. They rode sleds from Alton up thru the broads past barbers pole to our area. Said the broads had consistent 10-12 inches of ice.

Did they check your license? On that show "North Woods Law" they ALWAYS check licenses! They seem to be more interested in "catching" somebody than helping. It's just the way they come across in that show. The Maine F&G don't seem to sneak around so much to catch people. Is that me or has anybody else noticed?

[Hillcountry]

Originally Posted by tis

Did they check your license? On that show "North Woods Law" they ALWAYS check licenses! They seem to be more interested in "catching" somebody than helping. It's just the way they come across in that show. The Maine F&G don't seem to sneak around so much to catch people. Is that me or has anybody else noticed?

I always thought just the opposite...then maine wardens are the sneakiest around. And it goes without saying, they check licenses every time in my experience.
What boggles my mind is them using snowmobiles this time of year...

[tis]

Interesting Hill. I have only seen a couple of them so maybe that's why. It just seemed to me that most of what they did was try to sneak up on somebody to see if they were hunting or fishing without a license.

[MAXUM]

So are you all actually complaining that the F&G is doing their job?!?

I for one hope they bust as many people as they can who don't or won't purchase a license. I've had my license checked by them while both hunting and fishing. These guys have always been super nice and I'm happy they do. If they have to use some quasi stealth tactics to catch people so be it, shouldn't care if you're doing it right and legal.

[Top-Water]

For those folks that keep an eye on Massabesic as an indicator for ice out on Winni.

Massabesic is 99.8 % open with a few boats on it yesterday. The only ice on it was some broken up wind blow ice stacked against the shore south of Claire's landing on RT 121. Very likely it will have no ice at all by tonight.


Thanks again everyone for all the different ice out reports.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by Top-Water

For those folks that keep an eye on Massabesic as an indicator for ice out on Winni.

Massabesic is open with a few boats on it yesterday. The only ice on it was some broken up wind blow ice stacked against the shore south of Claire's landing on RT 121


Thanks again everyone for all the ice out reports.

Thanks for that report!....if All holds true we should now see ice out on Winni April 13 + or -

Dan

[Top-Water]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

Thanks for that report!....if All holds true we should now see ice out on Winni April 13 + or -

Dan

I really hope you are correct ............ I picked April 14

[WINNIPESAUKEEBOB]

Hi;

one of my buddies went up to the Weirs Beach chanel this morning. There were about 20 guys fishing along the various docks on the chanel, and everyone was catching nice "Bows"

WINNIPESAUKEE BOB

[MikeF-NH]

I'm hoping the 13th estimate is spot on also. I have that day off and expect to spend the entire day trolling the big lake. Even if not officially declared Ice Out...I regularly am able to troll many areas in the week leading up to ice out so I expect to be on the lake on the 13th.

[WINNIPESAUKEEBOB]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Good luck, let us know what you get!

One of my buddies went up this am, and reported lots of nice rainbows and a few salmon were being caught in the Weirs Beach channel this am. About 20 guys were fishing the channel.

[Outdoorsman]

Originally Posted by 8gv

This thread has caused me to think long and hard about my future.

When ice out is declared on the exact time and day that I have predicted there will be calls for me to run for public office.

To clarify my position on that...

If nominated, I will not run.

If elected, I will not serve.

If re-elected, I will again, not serve.

Think I nailed it!

Before I can decide to NOT vote for you, I will need to know your position on a few more pressing issues.
......

Where do you stand on using noodles as a life saving device for snowmobilers

How often do you use a noodle as a rowing vessel

What is your position on using Emergency (specifically fire rescue) boats as a pickle ball court

How far do you drive for free coffee, internet or toilet paper

Can you build a M/S Mt. Washington II for under $6.00

........
As it stands right now, I am writing you in

[Hillcountry]

Originally Posted by WINNIPESAUKEEBOB

One of my buddies went up this am, and reported lots of nice rainbows and a few salmon were being caught in the Weirs Beach channel this am. About 20 guys were fishing the channel.

When you say “various docks” where exactly do you mean? Do the marinas allow fisherman to fish from their docks when they’re closed?

[kawishiwi]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

So are you all actually complaining that the F&G is doing their job?!?

I for one hope they bust as many people as they can who don't or won't purchase a license. I've had my license checked by them while both hunting and fishing. These guys have always been super nice and I'm happy they do. If they have to use some quasi stealth tactics to catch people so be it, shouldn't care if you're doing it right and legal.

I agree with the point that this is F&G doing their job, and, I wish they did this a lot more often.
Also, it seems that much of what people complain about on this forum is basically "people being jerks while 'fill in the blank'". Boating, sledding, fireworks, etc. Many of those behaviors are also violations of rules & laws that are grossly under enforced. Yeah, yeah, I know some of you will complain about enforcement as "fun police", or bad "cus FREEDOM!" but most of these violations result in a loss of fun & freedom for those of us who are responsible in our various activities.

[Top-Water]

We will return to our regularly scheduled topic when a few photos of new open water get posted.

[kawishiwi]

Originally Posted by Top-Water

We will return to our regularly scheduled topic when a few photos of new open water get posted.

Busted by the thread police! I didn't see you hiding there but I can assure you officer Topwater that I have a license but I left it at home....

[8gv]

Originally Posted by Outdoorsman

Before I can decide to NOT vote for you, I will need to know your position on a few more pressing issues.
......

Where do you stand on using noodles as a life saving device for snowmobilers

How often do you use a noodle as a rowing vessel

What is your position on using Emergency (specifically fire rescue) boats as a pickle ball court

How far do you drive for free coffee, internet or toilet paper

Can you build a M/S Mt. Washington II for under $6.00

........
As it stands right now, I am writing you in

I have decided to skip tonight’s $1,000/plate campaign fundraiser in my honor.

I do think I may have nailed ice out though...

[Top-Water]

NH Boat Museum Hosts 2018 Ice-Out Celebration

http://newenglandboating.com/nh-boat...t-celebration/

[sum-r breeze]

Originally Posted by Top-Water

NH Boat Museum Hosts 2018 Ice-Out Celebration

http://newenglandboating.com/nh-boat...t-celebration/

Do you think they know something we don't? Maybe they have some inside information from the weather gods? Inquiring minds woul love to know...

The Breeze
Wave 'cuz I'll be wavin' back

[ishoot308]

Going by Lily Pond tonight I couldn’t believe how much melting had occurred! Half of Lily Pond is now open water and should be ice free in a day or two!

Wont be long!

Dan

[Hillcountry]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

Going by Lily Pond tonight I couldn’t believe how much melting had occurred! Half of Lily Pond is now open water and should be ice free in a day or two!

Wont be long!

Dan

April 15th was my guess...hope it’s sooner though...

[Descant]

What about CrystlLake in Gilmanon? That is supposed to be a 10 day warning.
We really need a list of lakes and ice out dates for the last 50(?) years. Of course, if it gets too scientific, it loses the magic. No surprise that the Old Farmer's Almanac can predict weather but not ice out.
My grandfather used to race horses on Lake Champlain ice. Do they go through this agony every spring too?

[ishoot308]

Went by Lily Pond this morning and about 1/3rd of the pond still has ice on the north side. Should be all gone by Friday...

Dan

[MikeF-NH]

the rain has ice in many cams looking very dark gray. I am certain many areas still have over a foot of ice but the color is similar to what it looks like when we begin to see cracks or openings in the ice. Shoreline ice also appears to be receding very nicely at Weirs and West Alton.

Has anyone been by Alton Bay recently? Is the ice receded to past the gazebo yet? How far is it out at that location?

[Eyeboat]

I believe my guess was the 16th. Gonna be close.

[Chaos]

is clear from the bandstand to the bridge. I drove by this AM.

[Hillcountry]

Some brisk winds predicted which will help break up things!

[Top-Water]

Thanks everyone for the reports and photos.

Looks like it won't be that much longer.

As mentioned previously, the wind might put a big dent in it tonight.

[8gv]

I have been searching for the link to all the ice out guesses with no luck.

Can somebody please post it?

Thanks!

[Senter Cove Guy]

Originally Posted by 8gv

I have been searching for the link to all the ice out guesses with no luck.

Can somebody please post it?

Thanks!

Check it out here: https://www.winnipesaukee.com/index.php?pageid=iceout

[8gv]

Thanks!

My guess is still looking good!

I got my ice out training as a youth guessing the pond at J.B.Williams Park.

[Senter Cove Guy]

Originally Posted by 8gv

Thanks!

My guess is still looking good!

I got my ice out training as a youth guessing the pond at J.B.Williams Park.

You've got the right hour, just not the right date.

[Slickcraft]

Lily Pond: There is just a small amount of ice left today in the north corner. Less than one sixth of the pond.

Last year the ice on Winnie went real fast after Lily was clear. However as I recall it was quite a bit warmer then.

Today's view from Belknap point shows mostly ice. There looks to be open water extending south a ways from Welch.

[Shrimpbrain]

Ice out will be April 13th at 11:47 am.

[Hillcountry]

I didn’t catch the entire bit, but Lily Pond was on the WMUR news this morning.
Must have been related to Winni ice out...anyone catch that?

[Chaos]

The story was about Ice Out and Emerson Aviation. Showed Lily pond ice from Emerson's photos yesterday.

[8gv]

So what is the prize this year?

Another new F250 like last year?

[Descant]

Did an F250 go through the ice again this year? That is where the prize comes from, right?

[Outdoorsman]

I am guessing ice will not be out by 11:10 an tomorrow

[SAB1]

Typically ten days after lily pond but last Saturday we fished on twenty inches of ice so that will take a bit longer than the thirteenth

[MAXUM]

Not to depress anyone but Emerson Aviation did a fly over yesterday and it's still looking real solid out there.

https://www.facebook.com/13184787685...9287399773722/

[Grady223]

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[joey2665]

Forecast doesn’t look to promising to accelerate the process either. Temps many nights still below freezing. The only hope is the rain they are predicting for Tuesday and Thursday


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[8gv]

These guys may be able to help.

The action starts around 2:00.



https://youtu.be/F2bgZ4PTGhY

[Paugus bay girl]

Maybe time to just take up a winter sport, as winter seems to have prevalence over summer weather the last few years.

[ishoot308]

These cold nights (low 20's) have really really put a damper on any ice melt. Very little if any progress in the last few days...so much for fishing this upcoming weekend!!

Dan

[Biggd]

I want to do some yard work and I still have huge piles of snow.

[Top-Water]

Originally Posted by Biggd

I want to do some yard work and I still have huge piles of snow.

Me too ...... all the more reason to go fishing.

Originally Posted by ishoot308

These cold nights (low 20's) have really really put a damper on any ice melt. Very little if any progress in the last few days...so much for fishing this upcoming weekend!!

Dan

I was also thinking a few weeks back that "maybe" Ice-Out would come a little eary this year.

Out of curiosity. Anyone know When squam usually gives up all or most of its ice to get some fishing in.

Is it a few days ahead or behind of winnie?

[Beauport]

I drove around much of Squam yesterday and it looked totally socked in. No idea what the ice thickness is, but to my eye, it looked like it was behind Winni.

Jim

[Top-Water]

@ Beauport

Thanks for the squam lake ice information

[Slickcraft]

The view today from Belknap Point is essentially the same as 5 days ago. All ice except for a small area off south Welch.

Our Eastern is in the water at Fay’s and Smith Cove is mostly open so I suppose we could do laps around the cove ☹️


Sent from my iPad using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[Paugus bay girl]

Lily Pond is ICE FREE. 10 days. I'm thinking April 19th. Typical 3rd week of April Ice out.

[MikeF-NH]

Chaos, any updated pictures from Alton Bay? I'm hoping for ice to pull back to Sandy Point and I will be on the water Friday. I think it would take a small miracle. A nice start would be rain and no snow from tomorrows front. We get 50s and 60s the rest of the week around my neck of the woods but nighttime temps just aren't low enough to sustain rapid melting. Only hope is those warming waters coming into the Bay.

[Chaos]

Sorry, nothing new. I won't be up again until my boat is unwrapped and I start the multi-day polish and wax before launch. My guess, with the weather we've had, it's not much past the bandstand since I took that picture last week. Ugggh!

[upthesaukee]

Originally Posted by MikeF-NH

Chaos, any updated pictures from Alton Bay? I'm hoping for ice to pull back to Sandy Point and I will be on the water Friday. I think it would take a small miracle. A nice start would be rain and no snow from tomorrows front. We get 50s and 60s the rest of the week around my neck of the woods but nighttime temps just aren't low enough to sustain rapid melting. Only hope is those warming waters coming into the Bay.

There are narrow openings along the shoreline, and from the bridge it is still open only just barely post the bandstand.

Dave

[Taz]

Lily Pond now 100% ice free. How long after Lily Pond is ice free does Winni usually declare ice out? Is it typically 2 weeks?

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by Taz

Lily Pond now 100% ice free. How long after Lily Pond is ice free does Winni usually declare ice out? Is it typically 2 weeks?

Lily Pond was ice free a few days ago....usually one week later for Winni but doubt that will happen this year. It seems all usual indicators will be way off. Mother Nature proving she is still Queen!!

[Paugus bay girl]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

Lily Pond was ice free a few days ago....usually one week later for Winni but doubt that will happen this year. It seems all usual indicators will be way off. Mother Nature proving she is still Queen!!

I wore my flip flops today, screw it. I don't care how cold it is, I refuse to wear anymore winter stuff till next winter. I put away all the boots, jackets, and shovels. It's flip flops, sneakers, and hoodies now.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by Paugus bay girl

I wore my flip flops today, screw it. I don't care how cold it is, I refuse to wear anymore winter stuff till next winter. I put away all the boots, jackets, and shovels. It's flip flops, sneakers, and hoodies now.

That sounds like an awesome plan to me! Count me in! Maybe Mother Nature will get the hint!

Dan

[8gv]

As I was putting my snow shovels and snow pullers away this evening it started to snow.

Grrrrrrrrrrrrr!

[Paugus bay girl]

Originally Posted by 8gv

As I was putting my snow shovels and snow pullers away this evening it started to snow.

Grrrrrrrrrrrrr!

I walked in the snow thru my front yard with flip flops on to my car,about an inch, didn't care.

[jeffk]

I only put ONE of my snow shovels away.

I live next to a pond in Center Harbor and usually it is thawed a little before Winnipesaukee has ice out. It is still solidly iced in.

The 10 day forecast is for cooler than normal temps and quite a bit of cloudiness. There is some heavy rain forecast for over the weekend but the temps won't be above mid 40's so I don't think it will help that much. The long range forecast predicts we won't break into a weeks of 50/60 degree highs until the week after next.

I think progress will be slow.

[Merrymeeting]

The good news is if you check the water temps, the ice must be eroding from below. Trexler site https://www.trexlers.com/lake-winnipesaukee-live-feed, shows temps approaching and sometimes exceeding 38, which typically is the magic tipping point for ice-out melting.

The water temps posted on this site seem to be high, but overall increasing.

[MAXUM]

Hey 50-60 degrees may not seem terribly warm, but it's still 18-28 degrees north of freezing and that's not nothing!

With all the ice pull back from around the shore line once this stuff starts to move around it will actually begin to destroy itself and anything in it's path if the wind is kicking at a good clip.

I think we're less than a week out.

[JasJackson]

If you check the camera and time lapse for Flightcraft, you can see how much the ice melted away from the shore just today...

https://flightcraft.lakehost.net/index.php/webcam/

[dt5150]

glendale today. it's gettin there...

[MikeF-NH]

anyone with eyes on Alton Bay....any chance ice is out to Sandy point by tomorrow morning???

[upthesaukee]

Originally Posted by MikeF-NH

anyone with eyes on Alton Bay....any chance ice is out to Sandy point by tomorrow morning???

Yesterday, the ice was maybe 20 yards beyond the bandstand. Ice along the shoreline is redeeming but not fast. I think it is unlikely, but you never know...

Better idea tonight, maybe.

Dave

[rsmlp]

So based on latest info/data, what's best guess for ice out now?

[Igione]

I live on Rust Pond and this morning there was still a good 3 inches of ice about 2 feet from the shore. The top is getting mushy which is a good sign. But other than that, the rest of the lake is solid.
Since Rust Pond is just a few 'blocks' from South Wolfeboro Bay, it's not looking great for ice out before the 23rd at best for us.

[steve-on-mark]

Originally Posted by rsmlp

So based on latest info/data, what's best guess for ice out now?

April 22nd @ 1:15 p.m.!

[Grady223]

Water temp was 42 degrees Monday. Won’t be long.

[AC2717]

April 23rd 10:22am is the best looking time as of now

[steve-on-mark]

Originally Posted by AC2717

April 23rd 10:22am is the best looking time as of now

Don't even think about stealing my thunder!

[webmaster]

Today's update from Emerson Aviation:

This mornings flight showed very little difference from Monday. Still no appreciable open water, including the Broads. Stay tuned.

[CoastalWx]

That ice will take work. Also, that temp looks awfully high. I would check that validity of that.

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by CoastalWx

That ice will take work. Also, that temp looks awfully high. I would check that validity of that.

Well here is something that indicates it's not that far off.

[rsmlp]

Looks like 1-3" on Sunday. THEN it will be over...

[C-Bass]

Twenty mile bay is getting there..

[C-Bass]

Open water is pushing out from the twenty mile brook. Same at 19Mi bay. Been happening for the past few weeks.

[CoastalWx]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Well here is something that indicates it's not that far off.

That depends on how and where that thermometer is situated. Looks like a diurnal cycle too. Is it affected by melting ice now and sunlight hitting it? If so it may not be a true measurement. In any case melting will be more significant tomorrow. Big step back this weekend and then heavy rain Monday. Things should accelerate soon.

[sum-r breeze]

From the gas dock at MVYC the ice is very gray and there are a couple of fishermen in a 12’Whaler fishing right at the edge of the ice. Those are some hardcore fishing enthusiasts!! Weather looks iffy but gonna try to get some wax on the “Breeze” Won’t be too long...The ice looks weak.

The Breeze
Wave ‘cuz I’ll be wavin’ back

[ishoot308]

The broads are basically slush. Should be breaking up tonight or tomorrow. A good wind would make things go quickly. Here’s a pic...FYI, that’s Welch Island on the left.

Dan

[ishoot308]

With the anticipated 40 mph wind and rain tomorrow, that should take care of a lot of ice!

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

With the anticipated 40 mph wind and rain tomorrow, that should take care of a lot of ice!

And possibly a lot of the east facing docks.
Winds will be out of the E., then ENE.
For Paugus Bay that means South Down and Long Bay are in the cross hairs.

[jeffatsquam]

10 minutes and counting for my guess. Theres always next year.

[8gv]

So the ice will be off tomorrow as I have predicted but...

the weather will be inappropriate for flying so it will not be seen until a few days later.

[CoastalWx]

Going to be a little while. Today in the 20s, and should not be too windy tomorrow. The heavy rain will help, but it will take time to break it up.

[ishoot308]

Today's wind has definitely started things moving. The are now very large areas of cracked ice I can see between Welch and Ellacoya with water between them. The open water on the southern side of Welch has definitely extended as well!

Not sure I want to see the ice starting to go out with this crazy wind as I feel a lot of dock destruction would occur.

Dan

[SplendidSplinter9]

Has anyone seen the conditions at Silver Sands boat launch?

[Slickcraft]

After yesterday's strong wind I had expected to see the ice broken up between Belknap Point and Welch. Not so

The open water south of Welch has expanded a small amount and there is a bit of open off the west side of Welch. Other than that, ice ice ice crap.

[chasedawg]

curious...when was the latest ice out ever recorded? Just got back from spending the winter in Florida. Now getting out of here heading to the BVI's taking folks sailing. Hope when we come back May 1 the ice will be gone. Not sure after yesterday and seeing all the ice out there.

[daveschappell]

Looks like May 12, 1888!

https://www.winnipesaukee.com/index.php?pageid=iceout

[Eyeboat]

My boat is supposed to hit the water May 12th, maybe I should reschedule

[8gv]

Maybe we can redirect the panels from a local solar farm to reflect sunlight onto the ice.

That would melt it!

Wait, that requires sunshine...

nevermind!

[Merrymeeting]

It'll start going fast after this weekend. The forecast shows many sunny days with temps in the more seasonal/higher range. Most importantly, the temps will stay above freezing at night for several nights in a row.

[AC2717]

Anyone able to give an update on Paugus Bay?
wanted to put the lifts in this weekend

[JADAQ]

Edges on paugus Bay are way out, some spots 30-40 feet.
Still a bunch of ice in the middle but going fast!

[Hillcountry]

Originally Posted by AC2717

Anyone able to give an update on Paugus Bay?
wanted to put the lifts in this weekend

As evidenced by the previous post...this morning at Paugus

[Old Sarge]

Originally Posted by Eyeboat

My boat is supposed to hit the water May 12th, maybe I should reschedule

I would think that you will be fine on May 12th (I am also getting my boat on the 12th-the day MVYC starts valet!). When you do hit the water , early in the year, you may want to keep a look-out for floating debris (ie logs, sticks and pieces of peoples docks etc.).