2018 Ice Out Progress

Merrymeeting · 04-11-2018, 07:04 AM

The good news is if you check the water temps, the ice must be eroding from below. Trexler site https://www.trexlers.com/lake-winnipesaukee-live-feed, shows temps approaching and sometimes exceeding 38, which typically is the magic tipping point for ice-out melting.

The water temps posted on this site seem to be high, but overall increasing.

MAXUM · 04-11-2018, 12:08 PM

Hey 50-60 degrees may not seem terribly warm, but it's still 18-28 degrees north of freezing and that's not nothing!

With all the ice pull back from around the shore line once this stuff starts to move around it will actually begin to destroy itself and anything in it's path if the wind is kicking at a good clip.

I think we're less than a week out.

JasJackson · 04-11-2018, 03:01 PM

If you check the camera and time lapse for Flightcraft, you can see how much the ice melted away from the shore just today...

https://flightcraft.lakehost.net/index.php/webcam/

dt5150 · 04-11-2018, 03:57 PM

glendale today. it's gettin there...

MikeF-NH · 04-12-2018, 05:45 AM

anyone with eyes on Alton Bay....any chance ice is out to Sandy point by tomorrow morning???

upthesaukee · 04-12-2018, 07:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeF-NH

anyone with eyes on Alton Bay....any chance ice is out to Sandy point by tomorrow morning???

Yesterday, the ice was maybe 20 yards beyond the bandstand. Ice along the shoreline is redeeming but not fast. I think it is unlikely, but you never know...

Better idea tonight, maybe.

Dave

rsmlp · 04-12-2018, 08:12 AM

So based on latest info/data, what's best guess for ice out now?

Igione · 04-12-2018, 08:35 AM

I live on Rust Pond and this morning there was still a good 3 inches of ice about 2 feet from the shore. The top is getting mushy which is a good sign. But other than that, the rest of the lake is solid.
Since Rust Pond is just a few 'blocks' from South Wolfeboro Bay, it's not looking great for ice out before the 23rd at best for us.

steve-on-mark · 04-12-2018, 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rsmlp

So based on latest info/data, what's best guess for ice out now?

April 22nd @ 1:15 p.m.!

Grady223 · 04-12-2018, 09:14 AM

Water temp was 42 degrees Monday. Won’t be long.

AC2717 · 04-12-2018, 09:41 AM

April 23rd 10:22am is the best looking time as of now

steve-on-mark · 04-12-2018, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AC2717

April 23rd 10:22am is the best looking time as of now

Don't even think about stealing my thunder!

webmaster · 04-12-2018, 12:36 PM

Today's update from Emerson Aviation:

Quote:

This mornings flight showed very little difference from Monday. Still no appreciable open water, including the Broads. Stay tuned.

CoastalWx · 04-12-2018, 01:34 PM

That ice will take work. Also, that temp looks awfully high. I would check that validity of that.

MAXUM · 04-12-2018, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoastalWx

That ice will take work. Also, that temp looks awfully high. I would check that validity of that.

Well here is something that indicates it's not that far off.

rsmlp · 04-12-2018, 06:00 PM

Looks like 1-3" on Sunday. THEN it will be over...

C-Bass · 04-12-2018, 08:00 PM

Twenty mile bay is getting there..

C-Bass · 04-12-2018, 08:02 PM

Open water is pushing out from the twenty mile brook. Same at 19Mi bay. Been happening for the past few weeks.

CoastalWx · 04-12-2018, 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Well here is something that indicates it's not that far off.

That depends on how and where that thermometer is situated. Looks like a diurnal cycle too. Is it affected by melting ice now and sunlight hitting it? If so it may not be a true measurement. In any case melting will be more significant tomorrow. Big step back this weekend and then heavy rain Monday. Things should accelerate soon.

sum-r breeze · 04-14-2018, 08:21 AM

From the gas dock at MVYC the ice is very gray and there are a couple of fishermen in a 12’Whaler fishing right at the edge of the ice. Those are some hardcore fishing enthusiasts!! Weather looks iffy but gonna try to get some wax on the “Breeze” Won’t be too long...The ice looks weak.

The Breeze
Wave ‘cuz I’ll be wavin’ back

ishoot308 · 04-14-2018, 02:06 PM

The broads are basically slush. Should be breaking up tonight or tomorrow. A good wind would make things go quickly. Here’s a pic...FYI, that’s Welch Island on the left.

Dan

depasseg · 04-18-2018, 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoastalWx

That depends on how and where that thermometer is situated. Looks like a diurnal cycle too. Is it affected by melting ice now and sunlight hitting it? If so it may not be a true measurement. In any case melting will be more significant tomorrow. Big step back this weekend and then heavy rain Monday. Things should accelerate soon.

The probes are under the dock, so not directly affected by the sun. But that area is only 15 feet deep, so I think the bottom helps absorb the sun and warm up the water. If you notice, the water temp cycle goes up and down right around the 39 degree temp mark, which is where the warm water/cold water inversion occurs. My hypothesis is that the colder water from out beyond the no wake marker is inverting with the warmer water in the shallower area. If you look at the 3 month graph, you can see the last warm up in March really heated up the water to 40 degrees, but then it quickly went back down.

AC2717 · 04-19-2018, 08:27 AM

love that view more than the others, no ice!!

MAXUM · 04-19-2018, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by depasseg

The probes are under the dock, so not directly affected by the sun. But that area is only 15 feet deep, so I think the bottom helps absorb the sun and warm up the water. If you notice, the water temp cycle goes up and down right around the 39 degree temp mark, which is where the warm water/cold water inversion occurs. My hypothesis is that the colder water from out beyond the no wake marker is inverting with the warmer water in the shallower area. If you look at the 3 month graph, you can see the last warm up in March really heated up the water to 40 degrees, but then it quickly went back down.

There is also a little bit of a "current" for lack of better description that is moving water through that area and under the LI bridge so that water isn't exactly stagnant.

Also it remains relatively shallow quite a distance out from the NWZ marker for at least another 300 yards it's still only 15 to 20 feet deep towards 5 mile IS and the entrance to Braun Bay. Even then it drops off pretty slow. The same is true on the opposite side of the LI Bridge, got to get beyond the little island and first black marker before the bottom starts to show any depth beyond 15 feet.

04-11-2018, 03:57 PM	#4
dt5150 Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 401 Thanks: 4 Thanked 107 Times in 72 Posts	glendale today. it's gettin there... Attached Images

04-12-2018, 08:12 AM	#7
rsmlp Senior Member Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 473 Thanks: 5 Thanked 164 Times in 84 Posts	ice out So based on latest info/data, what's best guess for ice out now?

04-12-2018, 08:35 AM	#8
Igione Junior Member Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 6 Thanks: 2 Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post	Ice out on Rust Pond I live on Rust Pond and this morning there was still a good 3 inches of ice about 2 feet from the shore. The top is getting mushy which is a good sign. But other than that, the rest of the lake is solid. Since Rust Pond is just a few 'blocks' from South Wolfeboro Bay, it's not looking great for ice out before the 23rd at best for us.

04-12-2018, 09:41 AM	#11
AC2717 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Maynard, MA & Paugus Bay Posts: 2,573 Thanks: 753 Thanked 354 Times in 266 Posts	April 23rd 10:22am is the best looking time as of now __________________ Capt. of the "No Worries"

04-12-2018, 06:00 PM	#16
rsmlp Senior Member Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 473 Thanks: 5 Thanked 164 Times in 84 Posts	S word Looks like 1-3" on Sunday. THEN it will be over...

04-11-2018, 07:04 AM	#1
Merrymeeting Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Merrymeeting Lake, New Durham Posts: 2,226 Thanks: 302 Thanked 800 Times in 368 Posts	The good news is if you check the water temps, the ice must be eroding from below. Trexler site https://www.trexlers.com/lake-winnipesaukee-live-feed, shows temps approaching and sometimes exceeding 38, which typically is the magic tipping point for ice-out melting. The water temps posted on this site seem to be high, but overall increasing.

04-11-2018, 12:08 PM	#2
MAXUM Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Kuna ID Posts: 2,755 Thanks: 246 Thanked 1,942 Times in 802 Posts	Hey 50-60 degrees may not seem terribly warm, but it's still 18-28 degrees north of freezing and that's not nothing! With all the ice pull back from around the shore line once this stuff starts to move around it will actually begin to destroy itself and anything in it's path if the wind is kicking at a good clip. I think we're less than a week out.

04-11-2018, 03:01 PM	#3
JasJackson Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 4 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3 Times in 2 Posts	If you check the camera and time lapse for Flightcraft, you can see how much the ice melted away from the shore just today... https://flightcraft.lakehost.net/index.php/webcam/

04-12-2018, 05:45 AM	#5
MikeF-NH Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 318 Thanks: 2 Thanked 120 Times in 80 Posts	anyone with eyes on Alton Bay....any chance ice is out to Sandy point by tomorrow morning???

04-12-2018, 09:14 AM	#10
Grady223 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: New Hope, PA & Barndoor Island Posts: 465 Thanks: 93 Thanked 24 Times in 18 Posts	Water temp was 42 degrees Monday. Won’t be long.

04-12-2018, 01:34 PM	#14
CoastalWx Member Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 23 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3 Times in 2 Posts	That ice will take work. Also, that temp looks awfully high. I would check that validity of that.

04-12-2018, 08:00 PM	#17
C-Bass Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 157 Thanks: 1 Thanked 34 Times in 17 Posts	Twenty mile bay is getting there.. Attached Images

04-12-2018, 08:02 PM	#18
C-Bass Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 157 Thanks: 1 Thanked 34 Times in 17 Posts	Open water is pushing out from the twenty mile brook. Same at 19Mi bay. Been happening for the past few weeks.

04-14-2018, 08:21 AM	#20
sum-r breeze Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Burlington Ma / Laconia NH Posts: 396 Thanks: 155 Thanked 201 Times in 97 Posts	From the gas dock at MVYC the ice is very gray and there are a couple of fishermen in a 12’Whaler fishing right at the edge of the ice. Those are some hardcore fishing enthusiasts!! Weather looks iffy but gonna try to get some wax on the “Breeze” Won’t be too long...The ice looks weak. The Breeze Wave ‘cuz I’ll be wavin’ back

04-14-2018, 02:06 PM	#21
ishoot308 Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Gilford, NH / Welch Island Posts: 6,232 Thanks: 2,384 Thanked 5,277 Times in 2,051 Posts	The broads are basically slush. Should be breaking up tonight or tomorrow. A good wind would make things go quickly. Here’s a pic...FYI, that’s Welch Island on the left. Dan Attached Images __________________ It's Always Sunny On Welch Island!! Last edited by ishoot308; 04-14-2018 at 03:33 PM.

04-19-2018, 08:27 AM	#23
AC2717 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Maynard, MA & Paugus Bay Posts: 2,573 Thanks: 753 Thanked 354 Times in 266 Posts	love that view more than the others, no ice!! __________________ Capt. of the "No Worries"